The briefing for Thursday, February 12.

The Congressional Budget Office released its 10-year fiscal outlook Wednesday, projecting that federal debt held by the public will rise from 101% of GDP to 120% by 2035, exceeding historical highs. The projected 2026 deficit is about $100 billion higher than last year's estimate, with total deficits from 2026 to 2035 now $1.4 trillion larger than previously forecast.

The deteriorating outlook stems largely from major policy changes over the past year, including Republicans' 'One Big Beautiful Bill Act,' higher tariffs, and the Trump administration's immigration enforcement crackdown. The CBO notes that while tariffs will raise federal revenue by $3 trillion, they also bring higher inflation from 2026 to 2029. Congressional Budget Office projections indicate inflation won't hit the Federal Reserve's 2% target rate until 2030.

Rising debt service costs matter because repaying investors for borrowed money crowds out government spending on infrastructure, roads, and education that enable future economic growth. Jonathan Burks of the Bipartisan Policy Center called the large deficits 'unprecedented for a growing, peacetime economy,' though he noted there is still time for policymakers to correct course. The Peterson Foundation's Michael Peterson warned that voters understand the connection between rising debt and their personal economic condition, calling debt stabilization essential to improving affordability.

The IRS wrongly shared the taxpayer information of thousands of people with the Department of Homeland Security as part of a controversial data-sharing agreement aimed at identifying immigrants for deportation, according to a court filing Wednesday. IRS Chief Risk and Control Officer Dottie Romo stated that of 1.28 million names ICE requested, the IRS verified roughly 47,000, but for less than 5% of those individuals, it provided additional address information that potentially violated federal privacy laws protecting taxpayer data.

The revelation stems from a data-sharing agreement signed in April 2025 by Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem, allowing ICE to submit names and addresses for cross-verification against tax records. The agreement triggered immediate litigation, with Public Citizen filing a lawsuit on behalf of immigrant rights groups. Federal courts have already blocked the IRS from sharing information with DHS twice, including a Massachusetts court order stopping the sharing of residential addresses with ICE.

Advocates warn the breach could be used to maliciously target Americans and violate their privacy. Lisa Gilbert of Public Citizen said sharing private taxpayer data creates chaos and can endanger lives when federal agents use it to track down individuals. Tom Bowman of the Center for Democracy & Technology emphasized that once taxpayer data is opened to immigration enforcement, mistakes are inevitable and the consequences fall on innocent people, demonstrating why strict legal firewalls have been treated as important guardrails.

The House approved legislation Wednesday requiring Americans to prove citizenship when registering to vote and present valid photo ID before casting ballots, passing the SAVE America Act on a mostly party-line vote of 218-213. The bill mandates proof through valid U.S. passport or birth certificate and requires states to share voter information with the Department of Homeland Security to verify citizenship. Only one Democrat, Rep. Henry Cuellar of Texas, voted for the measure.

The GOP push comes amid broader election turmoil, with the Trump administration recently seizing ballots in Georgia from the 2020 election and the Justice Department demanding voter rolls from states including Michigan, where a federal judge dismissed the department's lawsuit this week. Republicans argue the legislation is needed to prevent voter fraud, particularly among noncitizens, though experts say voter fraud is extremely rare and federal law already requires voters in national elections to be U.S. citizens.

Democrats warn the bill will disenfranchise millions of Americans by making it harder to vote. More than 20 million U.S. citizens of voting age do not have proof of citizenship readily available, and almost half of Americans lack a U.S. passport. The bill faces an uncertain future in the Senate, where it previously stalled, and critics say implementing new requirements immediately before primary elections starting next month would be difficult for state officials and potentially confuse voters. Fewer than one in 10 Americans don't have paperwork proving they are citizens.

Polls opened Thursday across Bangladesh for the country's first parliamentary election since former Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina's government collapsed in 2024 after weeks of mass protests. More than 127 million people are eligible to vote, with results expected Friday. The election is taking place under an interim government headed by Nobel Peace Prize laureate Muhammad Yunus, which has pledged to deliver a credible and transparent vote with around 500 international observers present.

Tarique Rahman of the Bangladesh Nationalist Party, who returned from 17 years of self-exile in London last December, is a leading contender to form the next government. He faces an 11-party alliance led by Jamaat-e-Islami, the country's largest Islamist party that was banned under Hasina but has gained prominence since her removal. The conservative religious group's growing influence has fueled concern among women and minority communities that social freedoms could come under pressure. Bangladesh is more than 90% Muslim, while around 8% are Hindu.

The vote includes a referendum on major constitutional reforms proposed in a national charter signed by major political parties last year. If approved by a majority of voters, the newly elected Parliament could form a constitutional reform council to implement changes within 180 working days, including creating new constitutional bodies and establishing a bicameral legislature. Young voters, including 5 million first-time voters, are expected to be influential in an election that could reshape Bangladesh's democratic future after decades marked by military coups and allegations of vote rigging.

The House voted 219-211 Wednesday to terminate the national emergency President Trump declared to impose tariffs on Canada, marking a rare bipartisan rebuke as six Republicans joined Democrats over GOP leadership objections. The resolution seeks to end tariffs Trump imposed last year, though undoing the policy would require Senate approval and the president's signature, which is highly unlikely. Within minutes of the vote, Trump posted a stern warning that any Republican voting against tariffs will 'seriously suffer the consequences come Election time.'

House Speaker Mike Johnson had tried to prevent the showdown by insisting lawmakers wait for a pending Supreme Court ruling on the tariffs and engineering a complicated rules change to block floor action. His strategy collapsed Tuesday evening as Republicans peeled off during a procedural vote. The administration claims illicit drug flow from Canada constitutes an unusual and extraordinary threat justifying the tariffs, though experts say fentanyl is largely smuggled into the U.S. from Mexico land crossings, not Canada.

Lawmakers face unrest back home from businesses caught in trade wars and constituents navigating high prices ahead of midterm elections. Rep. Gregory Meeks, the top Democrat on the House Foreign Affairs Committee who authored the resolution, framed the vote as a choice between lowering costs for American families or maintaining loyalty to Trump. The Senate has already voted to reject Trump's tariffs on Canada and other countries, but both chambers would need to approve the rollbacks and send them to Trump, who recently threatened a 100% tariff on Canadian goods over that country's proposed China trade deal.

Four Democratic-led states—California, Colorado, Illinois, and Minnesota—filed a lawsuit Wednesday to block the Trump administration from cutting approximately $600 million in public health grants. The Department of Health and Human Services told Congress Monday it plans to withhold the funding, with some grants potentially terminated as soon as Thursday and others in the coming weeks. The states' attorneys general argue the cuts are unconstitutional retaliation for their opposition to Trump's immigration crackdown.

The lawsuit, filed in federal court in Illinois, says the cuts violate the Constitution by imposing retroactive conditions on funding. Several of the largest planned cuts target programs preventing the spread of HIV and other sexually transmitted infections in Chicago and Los Angeles, with a focus on adolescents, ethnic minorities, and gay men. Health officials have said the grants are 'inconsistent with agency priorities' as the Trump administration shifted away from supporting programs for specific populations, dubbing health equity an 'ideologically-laden' concept.

The administration also plans to pull hundreds of millions in transportation funding from the same four states. Courts have temporarily blocked similar efforts, with a judge last week ruling the administration cannot cut off billions in child care subsidies and other social service programs for lower-income people in those states plus New York. California Attorney General Rob Bonta said the cuts will 'irreparably harm' public health, accusing Trump of using federal funding to compel states to follow his agenda.