The briefing for Saturday, March 7.

The US-Israel war with Iran entered its second week Saturday with President Trump ruling out negotiations and demanding Iran's 'unconditional surrender.' Trump said on Truth Social that after a surrender and 'the selection of a GREAT & ACCEPTABLE Leader(s),' the US and allies would help rebuild Iran. White House spokeswoman Karoline Leavitt said the administration expects military operations to last four to six weeks. The conflict has killed at least 1,230 people in Iran, more than 200 in Lebanon, around a dozen in Israel, and six US troops, according to officials.

The war expanded dramatically as Iran launched retaliatory strikes across the region. Saudi Arabia shot down drones targeting its Shaybah oil field and a ballistic missile aimed at Prince Sultan Air Base, which hosts US forces. Dubai International Airport temporarily halted operations after Iranian attacks, with passengers sheltering in train tunnels. Qatar's energy minister warned the conflict could 'bring down the economies of the world,' predicting oil could hit $150 a barrel if Gulf energy exports shut down.

Russia has provided Iran with intelligence that could help Tehran strike American warships and aircraft in the region, according to two US officials. The officials said Moscow has shared targeting information on US military positions in the Middle East, though they cautioned the intelligence hasn't shown Russia is directing Iran's actions. Meanwhile, evidence emerged suggesting a deadly Feb. 28 explosion at an Iranian school in Minab that killed civilians was likely caused by US airstrikes, based on satellite images and expert analysis.

The question of Iran's next leader remains unresolved after Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei was killed in an Israeli airstrike last week. His son Mojtaba Khamenei, who also lost his wife in the attack, is considered a leading candidate despite Trump calling him 'unacceptable' and 'a lightweight.' Iranian state television reported a leadership council had begun discussions on convening the Assembly of Experts to select the next supreme leader. The succession decision will determine control over Iran's military and its stockpile of highly enriched uranium that could be used for nuclear weapons.

Israel launched a major wave of airstrikes on Beirut Saturday after ordering hundreds of thousands of residents to evacuate the city's southern suburbs. The Israeli military said it was targeting Hezbollah infrastructure across Lebanon, with Beirut's southern districts seen as strongholds for the Iran-backed group. The unprecedented blanket evacuation order covering areas including Chiyah, Burj al-Barajneh, Haret Hreik and Hadath sparked panic, with traffic jams forming on main roads as residents fled. According to Lebanese authorities, more than 120 people have been killed and nearly 700 wounded by Israeli strikes since Monday, with at least 90,000 displaced.

The escalation in Lebanon comes as Israeli forces push into the country for what appears to be another full-scale ground war with Hezbollah. Israel issued a massive evacuation order for southern Lebanon reaching roughly 27km inside the country, ahead of an anticipated ground incursion. Israeli Chief of Staff Lt Gen Eyal Zamir said the military is 'determined to eliminate the threat Hezbollah poses' and will not stop until the group is disarmed. A senior Israeli military official said forces were taking additional hilltops inside Lebanon and had plans to advance as far as the Litani River and beyond if ordered.

The fighting pulled Lebanon back into conflict just 15 months after a ceasefire ended more than a year of devastating battles between Israel and Hezbollah. Hezbollah joined the war Monday in retaliation for the assassination of Iran's Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, launching rockets and drones at Israel. Hezbollah leader Naim Qassem vowed the group would confront Israel 'to the point of the utmost sacrifice,' declaring 'we will not surrender.' Food kitchens and shelters in Beirut have warned they cannot support the number of people being displaced by the Israeli offensive.

Oil prices surged past $90 a barrel Friday, with US crude settling at $90.90—up 36% from a week ago—and international benchmark Brent climbing 27% to reach $92.69. The rapid price increase came as the US-Israel war with Iran showed no signs of ending, leaving ships carrying roughly 20 million barrels of oil per day stranded in the Persian Gulf, unable to safely pass through the Strait of Hormuz. The strait, bordered on its north side by Iran, is a critical chokepoint where about a fifth of the world's oil typically flows.

The conflict has caused significant disruptions to oil and gas infrastructure across the Middle East. Iran struck a major refinery in Saudi Arabia and a liquefied natural gas facility in Qatar, taking about 20% of the world's LNG supply offline. According to Claudio Galimberti, chief economist at Rystad Energy, roughly 9 million barrels of oil per day are currently off the market due to facilities being hit or producers taking precautionary measures. Qatar's energy minister warned the war could send oil prices to $150 per barrel and threaten global economic stability.

American consumers are already feeling the impact at the pump. A gallon of regular gasoline rose to $3.32 on Friday, up 11% from a week ago, while diesel climbed to $4.33, up 15%, according to AAA. The price shocks are even more severe in Europe and Asia, with diesel prices doubling in Europe and jet fuel prices rising nearly 200% in Asia. President Trump said Friday there would be 'no deal with Iran except UNCONDITIONAL SURRENDER,' apparently ruling out negotiations that could ease the crisis. Despite being a net oil exporter, the US cannot simply replace the lost Middle Eastern supply, as most American oil is light sweet crude while East and West Coast refineries are designed for heavier crude.

The US economy unexpectedly lost 92,000 jobs in February as the unemployment rate ticked up to 4.4%, according to Labor Department figures released Friday. The contraction surprised analysts who had expected hiring to remain stable and marked the biggest monthly job loss since October when the federal government shut down. Nearly every sector shed jobs, including healthcare—typically a source of strength—which was hit by strikes last month. The figures dented hopes that hiring might be accelerating after 2025's weak performance, which was the slowest year for job creation since the pandemic.

Federal government employment continued its steep decline, dropping by 10,000 in February. Since hitting a peak in October 2024, federal employment has shrunk by 330,000 positions, or 11%, according to the Labor Department. The report also revised down job gains for December and January, showing the labor market was weaker than initially estimated. Samuel Tombs, chief US economist for Pantheon Macroeconomics, wrote that the figures showed 'the idea the labor market has turned a corner implodes with this report.'

The weak jobs report sent Wall Street lower and raised new pressure on President Trump, who campaigned on promises of improving the economy. Democrats quickly seized on the figures, with Senator Elizabeth Warren saying they showed the White House was 'tanking the job market.' White House officials brushed off the significance, with Kevin Hassett, director of the National Economic Council, telling CNBC he still expected strong growth ahead. The report also complicates decisions for the Federal Reserve, which would normally cut interest rates to boost a weakening labor market, but now faces the risk that sustained high oil prices from the Iran war could drive up inflation.

US Customs and Border Protection is developing a new streamlined system to refund $166 billion in tariffs now deemed illegal to over 330,000 companies, according to a filing with the Court of International Trade Friday. CBP Executive Director Brandon Lord said the system should be ready in 45 days and will require 'minimal submission from importers.' The announcement comes after a judge Wednesday ordered the government to pay back all importers who paid tariffs struck down by the Supreme Court—with interest.

Lord's filing revealed the scale of the refund challenge, noting that as of March 4, over 330,000 importers made a total of 53 million entries and paid about $166 billion in tariffs that must now be returned. Under the current system, processing these refunds would require more than 4.4 million man hours, which Lord said isn't feasible without severely disrupting CBP's other functions including its 'vital national security functions.' The new process will streamline and consolidate refunds and interest payments through system validations that minimize errors.

One complication is that most importers haven't completed signing up for CBP's electronic refund system, which became mandatory as of Feb. 6. Of the 330,566 importers who paid tariffs, only 21,423 have completed the setup process to receive refunds electronically. Lord noted that until importers complete this process, their refund payments will be rejected. Judge Richard Eaton, who ordered the refunds, must approve the new system before it can proceed.

Pentagon chief technology officer Emil Michael revealed Friday that his dispute with AI company Anthropic centered on the use of artificial intelligence in fully autonomous weapons, specifically in relation to President Trump's planned Golden Dome missile defense program. Michael, speaking on the 'All-In' podcast, said he came to view Anthropic's ethical restrictions on its Claude chatbot as 'an irrational obstacle' as the military pursues giving greater autonomy to armed drones, underwater vehicles, and other weapons systems to compete with China.

The comments came after the Pentagon formally designated San Francisco-based Anthropic a supply chain risk, cutting off its defense work. Trump also ordered federal agencies to immediately stop using Claude, though he gave the Pentagon six months to phase out the product, which is deeply embedded in classified military systems including those used in the Iran war. Anthropic has vowed to sue over the designation and said it only sought to restrict two uses: mass surveillance of Americans and fully autonomous weapons.

Michael described a hypothetical scenario involving Golden Dome where the US would have only 90 seconds to respond to a Chinese hypersonic missile, arguing that autonomous systems would be necessary and low-risk 'because it's in space and you're just trying to hit something that's trying to get you.' He said the military is developing procedures for different levels of autonomy depending on risk. In response, Anthropic pointed to an earlier statement from CEO Dario Amodei saying the company 'understands that the Department of War, not private companies, makes military decisions' and has 'never raised objections to particular military operations.'