The briefing for Monday, March 9.

Oil prices eclipsed $114 per barrel on Monday for the first time since 2022 as the Iran war intensified, threatening production and shipping in the Middle East. Brent crude jumped 23% from Friday's close of $92.69, while West Texas Intermediate rose 25% to about $114 per barrel. The surge follows last week's dramatic increases—U.S. crude up 36% and Brent up 28%—as the conflict enters its second week.

The crisis has effectively shut down oil transit through the Strait of Hormuz, where roughly 15 million barrels daily—about 20% of global supply—typically flows from Persian Gulf producers. According to research firm Rystad Energy, Iranian missile and drone threats have halted most tanker traffic through the strait. Iraq, Kuwait, and the UAE have cut production as storage tanks fill, while weekend strikes hit oil facilities in Tehran and petroleum terminals, killing four people.

U.S. gasoline prices have climbed to $3.45 per gallon, up 47 cents from a week ago, while diesel reached $4.60—an 83-cent weekly increase. Energy Secretary Chris Wright said prices would drop below $3 "before too long," estimating disruptions would last weeks, not months. However, analysts warn that sustained prices above $100 per barrel could seriously damage the global economy, particularly as countries adjust to higher U.S. tariffs and weakening job markets create a worst-case scenario of high inflation paired with economic weakness.

Iran announced Sunday that Mojtaba Khamenei, the 56-year-old son of the late supreme leader, will succeed his father following Ali Khamenei's death in recent U.S.-Israeli strikes. The appointment signals that hardliners remain firmly in control as the war enters its tenth day. President Donald Trump had already called the younger Khamenei "unacceptable," and the powerful Revolutionary Guard has pledged allegiance to the new leader.

The succession comes amid apparent rifts within Iran's leadership. President Masoud Pezeshkian apologized for attacks on neighboring countries, but hardliners criticized the statement and vowed the war strategy would continue. The choice may prove controversial domestically, as the Islamic Republic's founding ideology emphasizes that supreme leaders should be chosen for religious standing and proven leadership, not hereditary succession. Mojtaba Khamenei had not been seen publicly since the war began and has not yet made a statement in his new role.

Weekend escalations brought fresh strikes on both sides, with Israel attacking oil depots in Tehran and targeting Hezbollah in Lebanon, where over 500,000 people have been displaced. Bahrain accused Iran of striking a desalination plant critical to drinking water supplies. The U.S. military warned that Iran was launching attacks from densely populated areas, while evidence mounted suggesting U.S. involvement in a deadly strike on an Iranian girls' school on the war's first day. Seven U.S. soldiers have been killed in the conflict, and Gulf nations reported additional deaths from falling projectiles, with most casualties being foreign workers.

Japan's Nikkei 225 plunged more than 7% in early Monday trading, leading a regional market rout as oil prices soaring to $114 per barrel cast a shadow over economies heavily dependent on imported energy. South Korea's Kospi sank 7.4%, while Australian and New Zealand shares fell more than 3%. Hong Kong's Hang Seng lost 3.1% and Shanghai's Composite dropped 1.7%. U.S. stock futures pointed to significant losses, with the S&P 500 and Dow futures down over 2%.

The market turmoil follows Friday's weak U.S. jobs report showing employers cut more jobs than they created last month. The combination of weak economic data and surging energy costs creates what analysts call a worst-case scenario for central banks, which have no effective tool to address both high inflation and economic weakness simultaneously. On Friday, the S&P 500 dropped 1.3% and the Dow fell 453 points after initially plunging 945 points.

Senior officials from Southeast Asian countries are meeting this week in Manila to discuss countering the shock from higher energy costs. The U.S. dollar strengthened as investors sought safe havens, trading at 158.67 Japanese yen, up 0.9% from Friday. If oil prices persist above $100 per barrel, analysts warn of cascading effects through the global economy, further complicating matters for countries still adjusting to higher U.S. tariffs under President Trump.

Mojtaba Khamenei, 56, has been chosen to succeed his father as Iran's supreme leader despite having largely maintained a low public profile throughout his life. He has never held government office, given public speeches or interviews, and only limited photos and videos of him exist. However, leaked U.S. diplomatic cables from the late 2000s described him as "the power behind the robes" who was widely regarded as a "capable and forceful" figure within the regime.

Born in Mashhad in 1969, Mojtaba served briefly in the military during the Iran-Iraq War before attending seminary in Qom at age 30—unusually late for religious education. He remains a mid-ranking cleric, which could prove problematic for his authority, though some Iranian media and officials have recently begun calling him "Ayatollah" in an apparent attempt to elevate his religious standing. His father Ali Khamenei faced similar concerns about clerical rank when he became supreme leader in 1989.

Mojtaba first entered public spotlight during the 2005 presidential election, when reformist candidate Mehdi Karroubi accused him of interfering through Revolutionary Guard elements to help hardliner Mahmoud Ahmadinejad win. Similar accusations emerged after the disputed 2009 election that triggered the Green Movement protests, with some demonstrators chanting slogans opposing hereditary succession. His selection contradicts the Islamic Republic's founding principle that leaders should be chosen for religious merit rather than family lineage.

Japan began deploying its first batch of domestically developed long-range missiles on Monday, with launchers arriving at Camp Kengun in Kumamoto prefecture as the country accelerates its offensive strike capability. The upgraded Type-12 land-to-ship missiles, developed by Mitsubishi Heavy Industries, have a range of about 1,000 kilometers—capable of reaching mainland China—compared to the original 200-kilometer range. The deployment will be completed by the end of March.

The Defense Ministry moved up the deployment schedule by one year as Japan accelerates military buildup in its southwestern region amid escalating Chinese tensions around Taiwan. Chief Cabinet Secretary Minoru Kihara confirmed the deployment, though the highly secretive mission drew protests from local residents outside the camp who criticized the lack of transparency and warned the missiles could make the area a target for attacks.

The missiles will next be deployed at Camp Fuji in Shizuoka later this year. Japan has been steadily building up defenses on southwestern islands near the East China Sea, deploying PAC-3 interceptors and midrange surface-to-air missiles on Okinawa, Ishigaki, and Miyako. Defense Minister Shinjiro Koizumi announced plans to deploy midrange SAMs on Japan's westernmost island of Yonaguni—just east of Taiwan—by March 2031. Tensions further escalated after Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi said Chinese military action against Taiwan could justify Japanese military response.