The briefing for Monday, March 16.

Iran struck Dubai International Airport early Monday with a drone that hit a fuel tank, forcing temporary closure of the world's busiest airport for international passengers. The UAE later reported efforts to intercept another wave of Iranian missiles and drones. Saudi Arabia said it intercepted 35 Iranian drones targeting its eastern oil installations. The attacks mark a significant escalation as Iran continues retaliating against U.S. and Israeli strikes that began February 28.

Brent crude traded at $104 per barrel Monday morning, up nearly 45% since the war began and briefly spiking as high as $120 during the conflict. Iran has effectively stopped shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, where a fifth of the world's oil normally passes, with more than 12 million barrels per day taken offline in just over a week. President Trump said he's demanded about seven countries send warships to help keep the strait open, but has received no commitments. Iran's Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi rejected claims his country seeks negotiations, saying Iranian forces 'will keep firing until POTUS realizes that illegal war he's imposing on both Americans and Iranians is wrong.'

Israel launched new strikes on Beirut and Tehran early Monday. The Israeli military says Iran is now firing cluster bombs that can evade some air defenses. Over 800,000 people have been displaced in Lebanon by Israel's campaign, with at least 850 killed including 107 children. The conflict has put enormous pressure on Trump as rising gas prices hit American consumers ahead of midterm elections, with Republicans growing increasingly concerned about the political fallout.

Negotiations to renew the US-Mexico-Canada Agreement kick off Monday between U.S. and Mexican trade officials, launching what could be contentious talks over a pact that governs $1.6 trillion in annual trade. More than $4 billion in goods cross U.S. borders with Canada and Mexico daily, including auto parts, Mexican avocados, and Canadian aluminum. The USMCA, which took effect July 1, 2020, replaced NAFTA and was negotiated during Trump's first term with bipartisan congressional support.

The future of the agreement is uncertain as the U.S. demands changes and Trump has indicated willingness to withdraw if he doesn't get his terms. The top U.S. trade negotiator told Politico in December that Trump would pull out if necessary. Trump also suggested last fall the U.S. could negotiate separate bilateral deals with Canada and Mexico, potentially ending the three-country North American bloc. Under the renewal process, the countries could agree to extend USMCA as-is for 16 years, keep negotiating until 2036, or any member could withdraw with six months' notice.

Mexico and Canada are far ahead of China in both exports to and imports from the United States, making the negotiations critical for all three economies. American farmers are especially invested, having shipped nearly $31 billion in agricultural products to Mexico and $28 billion to Canada last year. While many USMCA-compliant goods continue entering the U.S. duty-free despite Trump's 2025 tariffs, some products now face steep levies including 25% on medium and heavy-duty trucks, 50% on steel, aluminum and copper, and 17% on Mexican tomatoes.

Senate Democrats are threatening to force a series of floor votes this week to demand public hearings on the Iran war, which has now entered its third week without congressional oversight. The conflict has cost over $1 billion daily and resulted in 13 U.S. military deaths, but President Trump has not sought congressional approval for the military action. Democrats say they're frustrated by Republican resistance to holding public testimony from Trump administration officials despite the mounting costs and casualties.

Senate Majority Leader John Thune said he doesn't expect public hearings specifically on the Iran war, pointing instead to classified briefings and regular news conferences from Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth and Gen. Dan Caine. Republican committee chairs dealing with national security also indicated no near-term plans for war-specific hearings. Senate Armed Services Committee Chair Roger Wicker said regular hearings would provide 'generous oversight' opportunities for lawmakers to ask questions.

Some Republicans are beginning to show frustration at the lack of high-level responses, especially as they await an expected supplemental budget request from the Trump administration. Sen. Lisa Murkowski said she doesn't want to 'just be given the invoice' and wants the administration engaged with Congress. Sen. John Kennedy fumed after a classified briefing last week was a 'total waste of time' because officials couldn't provide answers that Cabinet-level officials could. Democrats have pointed out the Pentagon already received additional funding through last year's GOP tax cut law.

President Trump suggested Sunday he may delay his planned visit to China at the end of March unless Beijing agrees to help reopen the Strait of Hormuz, raising the stakes for ongoing U.S.-China trade talks. In an interview with the Financial Times, Trump said China's reliance on Middle Eastern oil means it should help with his proposed coalition to restore oil tanker traffic through the strait. 'We'd like to know' before the trip whether Beijing will help, Trump said, adding 'We may delay.'

The uncertainty underscores how dramatically the Iran war has reshaped global politics in two weeks. Calling off the face-to-face meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping could have major economic consequences, as U.S.-China relations remain fraught with both sides threatening steep tariffs over the past year. U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent was meeting with Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng on Monday in Paris for trade talks meant to pave the way for Trump's Beijing trip.

Trump told reporters aboard Air Force One he'd spoken to 'about seven' nations about offering military support for the strait, though he wouldn't identify them. He was noncommittal about China specifically but noted its oil dependence: 'I said, Would you like to come in and we'll find out. Maybe they will, maybe they won't.' A Chinese Embassy spokesperson was measured in response, saying keeping the region 'safe and stable serves the common interests of the international community' but not committing to military involvement. China recently lowered its 2026 growth target to 4.5-5%, its slowest since 1991, meaning prolonged strait disruptions could have long-term impacts for Beijing.

European Union foreign ministers are meeting Monday to consider options for helping keep the Strait of Hormuz open as the Iran war drives up energy and commodity prices. EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas said the bloc could expand its existing Aspides naval mission from the Red Sea into the Persian Gulf, or form a 'coalition of the willing' with member nations contributing military capacity on an ad hoc basis. 'It is in our interest to keep the Strait of Hormuz open,' Kallas said ahead of the Brussels meeting.

President Trump has asked allies including France, China, Japan, South Korea, and Britain to help secure the strait for global shipping. The conflict has driven Brent crude up more than 40% but has also disrupted wider global supply chains beyond oil, affecting pharmaceuticals from India, semiconductors from Asia, and oil-derived products like fertilizers from the Middle East. Cargo ships are stuck in the Gulf or making much longer detours around Africa's southern tip.

France said it's working with partners in Europe, India, and Asia on a possible international escort mission but stressed it must wait until 'circumstances permit' when fighting subsides. German Foreign Minister Johann Wadephul said Germany would not become 'an active part of this conflict.' Luxembourg's Xavier Bettel noted the EU remains uncommitted: 'For the moment, the EU is not directly part of the situation. So we need to decide if we are going to be part or not.' The EU is also concerned about potential refugee flows from Iran if the war continues.

CEOs of major U.S. airlines including American, Delta, Southwest, and JetBlue published an open letter Sunday demanding Congress restore funding to the Department of Homeland Security and pay federal aviation workers during the partial government shutdown. The letter, also signed by cargo company leaders from UPS, FedEx, and Atlas Air, appeared in The Washington Post and called for passage of multiple bills to guarantee pay for air traffic controllers and TSA officers regardless of government funding status.

The current partial shutdown affects only DHS, which includes TSA, after Democrats refused to fund the department over objections to immigration enforcement tactics following fatal shootings in Minneapolis earlier this year. This marks the third shutdown in less than a year leaving TSA workers temporarily without pay. More than 300 TSA agents have quit since the shutdown began, and long security lines have appeared at a growing number of airports.

The CEOs noted high stakes with spring break underway, FIFA's World Cup 2026 approaching, and America's 250th birthday celebrations throughout the year. U.S. airlines expect 171 million passengers this spring season. 'It's difficult, if not impossible, to put food on the table, put gas in the car and pay rent when you are not getting paid,' the executives wrote. 'Once again, air travel is the political football amid another government shutdown.' Democratic lawmakers have said DHS won't get funded until new restrictions are placed on federal immigration operations.