The briefing for Monday, March 30.

Pakistan announced Sunday it will host talks between the U.S. and Iran in the coming days, marking a potential diplomatic breakthrough after weeks of quiet mediation. Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar said both countries had expressed confidence in Pakistan as a facilitator, though neither Washington nor Tehran immediately confirmed the announcement. It remains unclear whether the discussions will be direct or conducted through intermediaries.

The diplomatic effort comes amid escalating threats from Iran's parliament speaker, Mohammad Bagher Qalibaf, who dismissed the talks as cover for U.S. military action. He warned Iranian forces were "waiting for the arrival of American troops on the ground to set them on fire," referring to some 2,500 U.S. Marines trained in amphibious landings who recently arrived in the Middle East. Iran also threatened to target homes of U.S. and Israeli "commanders and political officials" in the region, citing attacks on Iranian residential areas.

The monthlong war has killed more than 3,000 people and now threatens to expand further. Israel's Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said the military will widen its invasion of Lebanon, while Yemen's Iran-backed Houthi rebels entered the conflict over the weekend, firing missiles at Israel. The war has disrupted global supplies of oil, natural gas, and fertilizer, with Iran's grip on the Strait of Hormuz shaking markets. Egyptian Foreign Minister Badr Abdelatty said the Pakistan meetings aim to open "direct dialogue" between the U.S. and Iran, who have largely communicated through mediators since the conflict began with U.S. and Israeli strikes on February 28.

Iranian attacks expanded across the Gulf region as the war entered its fifth week, targeting major industrial infrastructure in multiple countries. The United Arab Emirates reported injuries from a strike on a key aluminium plant in Abu Dhabi operated by Emirates Global Aluminium, while Bahrain's state-controlled Aluminium Bahrain said two employees were wounded at one of the world's largest aluminium smelting facilities. Both facilities sustained significant damage, according to the companies.

Additional strikes hit Kuwait's international airport radar system with 15 drones, while Oman said it was investigating attacks on its southern port of Salalah that injured a foreign worker. Tehran separately accused Israel of targeting two of its steel production operations. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps threatened retaliatory action against U.S. and Israeli universities in the Middle East, saying they would be considered legitimate targets "until two of their universities are struck."

The expanding attacks raise concerns about further economic disruption, particularly if Yemen's Houthi rebels target Red Sea shipping as they did during the Gaza conflict. The Houthis entered the war Saturday, launching missiles at Israel and vowing to continue such attacks. Oil and gas prices have already spiked as Iran has effectively shut the Strait of Hormuz, a key route for global energy supplies. Israel continued its own strikes against Iran and Lebanon, where the IDF confirmed killing Ali Shoeib, who worked for Hezbollah-affiliated Al Manar TV, describing him as a terrorist operating "under the guise of a journalist," though it provided no evidence for the military role claim.

The Iran conflict is inflicting mounting economic damage as infrastructure destruction accumulates and experts warn the war's ramifications will be "long-lived." Qatar's Ras Laffan natural gas terminal, which produces 20% of the world's liquefied natural gas, suffered a March 18 strike that wiped out 17% of Qatar's LNG export capacity. State-owned QatarEnergy said repairs will take up to five years, while oil prices climbed to $105.32 per barrel for Brent crude on Friday, up from roughly $70 before the war began.

Iran's effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz has created what the International Energy Agency calls the "largest supply disruption in the history of the global oil market," cutting off 20 million barrels of oil per day. Gulf exporters like Kuwait and Iraq slashed production because tankers cannot transit the strait. The war has also disrupted fertilizer supplies, with prices for urea up 50% and ammonia up 20%, threatening food production as farmers face higher costs and may reduce usage. The Persian Gulf accounts for a third of global urea exports and a quarter of ammonia exports.

Asian markets plunged Monday morning, with Japan's Nikkei 225 dropping 4.5% and South Korea's Kospi falling 3.2% as investors braced for prolonged conflict. The S&P 500 closed its worst week since the war began, down 8.7% from its January high. "Historically, oil price shocks like this have led to global recessions," said MIT energy economist Christopher Knittel. Poorer countries face the hardest squeeze, with many forced to ration fuel and subsidize energy costs. Former World Bank chief economist Carmen Reinhart warned the situation raises risks of stagflation—higher inflation combined with lower growth—echoing the oil shocks of the 1970s.

The partial government shutdown reached 44 days on Sunday, surpassing the previous record of 43 days and becoming the longest funding lapse in American history. The Department of Homeland Security has been closed since February 14, leaving tens of thousands of TSA officers working without pay and triggering massive airport delays. About 500 TSA employees have quit, and on Friday more than 3,560 officers—12.35% of the workforce—called out sick, according to DHS.

President Trump signed an executive order Friday attempting to free up emergency pay for TSA agents, though it remains unclear whether the order will face legal challenges since the Constitution tasks Congress with authorizing federal spending. White House border czar Tom Homan said agents should start receiving pay early this week, but warned that ICE agents deployed to airports to help with security disruptions will remain "until the airports feel like they are 100%." Congress left for a two-week recess without reaching a deal to reopen DHS.

The impasse centers on immigration enforcement and voting measures. The Senate passed a compromise deal to partially fund DHS and alleviate airport delays, but House Republicans rejected it and instead approved a short-term measure funding the entire department. Democrats oppose funding immigration agencies without reforms such as bans on ICE agents wearing masks and racial profiling, while House Republicans refuse legislation without full funding for immigration enforcement and voter ID requirements. Major airports including Houston's George Bush Intercontinental warned Sunday that TSA wait times could reach four hours or longer, with videos of massive security lines going viral and raising concerns about the U.S. ability to co-host the World Cup starting in June.

President Trump said Sunday night he has "no problem" with a Russian oil tanker delivering relief to Cuba, appearing to loosen a de facto oil blockade his administration imposed on the island in January. "We have a tanker out there. We don't mind having somebody get a boatload because they need… they have to survive," Trump told reporters aboard Air Force One. The Russian tanker Anatoly Kolodkin, carrying approximately 100,000 tonnes of crude oil, entered Cuban waters Sunday and is expected to reach the city of Matanzas by Tuesday, according to Russia's Interfax news agency.

The vessel is sanctioned by the United States, European Union, and United Kingdom following the war in Ukraine, making Trump's comments a significant policy shift. The Trump administration had effectively cut Cuba off from key oil shipments through threats of tariffs on any nation sending oil to the island, following the January 3 seizure of Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro, who had been providing Cuba with oil under preferential terms. Just over a week ago, the U.S. Treasury added Cuba to a list of countries barred from receiving Russian oil deliveries.

The blockade has had devastating effects on Cuban civilians, with island-wide blackouts and severe fuel shortages crippling hospitals and slashing public transport. The World Health Organization warned last week that Cuban hospitals were struggling to maintain emergency and intensive care services. Experts say the anticipated shipment could produce about 180,000 barrels of diesel—enough to meet Cuba's daily demand for nine or ten days. Russian Energy Minister Sergei Tsivilev said Wednesday that Cuba "had found itself in a difficult situation as a result of sanctions pressure," calling the shipment humanitarian supplies. Trump dismissed concerns that allowing the delivery would help Russian President Vladimir Putin, saying "It doesn't help him. He loses one boatload of oil, that's all it is."