UPDATE: Markets surge and oil falls below $100 as Trump signals war could end in 2-3 weeks, though Iran shows no signs of reopening Hormuz strait.
Global markets surged and oil prices fell below $100 per barrel on Wednesday after President Trump said the United States will likely be done attacking Iran in two to three weeks. The S&P 500 jumped 2.9% Tuesday for its largest gain since May, while Asian markets followed with strong rallies including South Korea's Kospi surging 8.4% and Tokyo's Nikkei rising 5.2%. Brent crude dropped to $102.98 per barrel after briefly falling below $100.
Trump's comments came after he told U.S. allies to "go get your own oil" and said the U.S. "will not have anything to do with" what happens next in the Strait of Hormuz, where roughly a fifth of the world's oil typically passes through. The White House announced Trump will deliver a public address Wednesday evening on the Iran war, now in its fifth week. U.S. gas prices surged past $4 a gallon on Tuesday, the first time since 2022, as the conflict continues to disrupt global energy markets.
Despite the market optimism, analysts cautioned that effects of the war could persist even if it ends soon. Thomas Mathews of Capital Economics noted that while de-escalation hopes have lifted markets, "the effects of the war would, in many cases, persist even if the war did end soon." Iran has shown no signs of reopening the Strait of Hormuz, and significant maritime traffic disruption continues to fuel global inflation concerns.
Editor’s rationale — Presidential announcement of imminent de-escalation in active Iran war creates substantial institutional impact through potential shift in military operations and foreign policy, with global scope affecting energy markets, inflation, and multiple economies; strong verification through official White House statements but limited novelty beyond market reaction to announced policy direction.