UPDATE: Second round of US-Iran negotiations uncertain as Tehran refuses to confirm attendance after US seized Iranian cargo ship, with Wednesday ceasefire deadline looming.
Pakistan continued preparations Tuesday for a second round of US-Iran negotiations in Islamabad despite Tehran refusing to confirm whether it will send a delegation. The uncertainty follows a weekend US Navy seizure of an Iranian cargo ship, which Iran called an "act of piracy" and a violation of the fragile ceasefire. According to the AP, the two-week ceasefire that began April 8 is set to expire Wednesday, with President Trump warning that "lots of bombs" will "start going off" if no agreement is reached.
At the heart of negotiations is control of the Strait of Hormuz, through which 20% of the world's natural gas and crude oil normally transits. The US has blockaded Iranian ports to pressure Tehran into ending its stranglehold on the waterway, which has sent Brent crude oil prices to nearly $95 per barrel—up more than 30% since late February. The European Union held emergency meetings Tuesday as its transportation ministers grapple with dwindling jet fuel supplies, with the International Energy Agency warning Europe has "maybe six weeks" of reserves remaining.
While US Vice President JD Vance is expected to lead the American delegation, Iranian state television broadcast a message Tuesday stating "no delegation from Iran has visited Islamabad... so far." Iran's chief negotiator Mohammed Bagher Qalibaf accused the US of demanding surrender and claimed Iran has been preparing "to reveal new cards on the battlefield." Despite the rhetorical skirmishing, Pakistani officials expressed confidence that Iran would send representatives, with Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar consulting with Egyptian and Chinese counterparts as security was tightened across Islamabad's capital in anticipation of the talks.
Editor’s rationale — High institutional impact from potential Iran-US negotiations affecting military posture, sanctions regimes, and Middle East stability; global scope through Strait of Hormuz blockade affecting 20% of world oil/gas transit and energy prices; strong durability as conflict resolution carries months-to-years relevance; moderate novelty as story reports ongoing preparation efforts rather than new primary developments; verification grounded in official statements from Trump, Iranian officials, Pakistani Foreign Ministry, and wire reporting, though Iranian participation remains unconfirmed.