The briefing for Wednesday, July 15.

The United States reimposed its naval blockade on Iran Tuesday after Tehran attacked commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz, ending a fragile ceasefire that lasted just weeks. President Trump scrapped his earlier plan to charge a 20% fee on cargo passing through the strait, instead announcing he would seek massive investment deals with Gulf states. Trump said the strait remains open to all traffic except Iranian vessels and declared the U.S. the waterway's guardian.

Iran responded by saying it would remain in control of the Strait of Hormuz, with Deputy Foreign Minister Kazem Gharibabadi stating the blockade decision has dismantled the earlier truce agreement. The U.S. and Iran have exchanged waves of strikes over the past three nights, with Iran's state media reporting explosions in multiple cities including Bushehr, home to a nuclear power plant. Trump threatened to target Iranian bridges and power plants if attacks continue, while Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu warned that Israel's retaliation would be much more powerful if attacked first.

The escalation centers on control of the Strait of Hormuz, through which roughly 25% of the world's oil and 20% of global liquefied natural gas previously passed before Iran effectively shut it down following U.S.-Israel strikes in February. Iran sees language in the June ceasefire agreement as giving it authority over the waterway's management, while the U.S. interprets the deal as requiring Iran to ensure free passage. Shipping data shows traffic through the strait has slowed to a two-month low, and benchmark Brent Crude oil prices have risen sharply as the conflict threatens global energy markets.

U.S. consumer prices fell 0.4% in June, the largest monthly drop in four years, as gasoline costs declined and underlying inflation slowed more than economists expected. The Labor Department reported Tuesday that annual inflation cooled to 3.5%, down from 4.2% in May. Core prices remained unchanged month-over-month, with the yearly rate dropping to 2.6% from 2.9%, though still above the Federal Reserve's 2% target.

The cooling largely reflected falling gas prices after the Iran ceasefire, but oil prices rose for a second day Tuesday as the U.S. renewed attacks and Trump announced a new blockade. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh said in testimony Tuesday the central bank has no tolerance for persistently elevated inflation but provided no signal about whether rate increases would be necessary. About half of Fed officials expect they will need to raise rates by year-end to combat inflation.

A separate inflationary threat is emerging from the massive buildout of artificial intelligence infrastructure. The four largest tech companies are expected to invest $720 billion this year on data centers, driving semiconductor prices up as much as 400% since 2024. JPMorgan economists warn this is pushing up costs for consumer electronics including laptops, tablets and video game consoles. Fed officials are monitoring whether AI investment will require higher interest rates to keep inflation in check through year-end.

Senate Democrats refused to advance the annual National Defense Authorization Act Tuesday, blocking the $1 trillion defense package that includes troop pay raises in protest of President Trump's war against Iran. The bill failed 50-46, falling largely along party lines as Senate Democratic Leader Chuck Schumer declared the legislation cannot become a permission slip for recklessness in Iran.

The vote came one day after the White House formally notified Congress it had resumed bombing strikes against Iran, effectively ending the fragile ceasefire. Schumer argued that Trump does not get to drag Americans deeper into a war he cannot explain and does not know how to end, then demand Congress look the other way. The war has dragged into its fifth month with no clear endgame, resulting in economic disruptions and volatile gas prices ahead of midterm elections.

Congress has attempted more than 10 times to pass war powers resolutions that would halt hostilities, but those efforts have not succeeded as most Republicans in both chambers back Trump. Senate Majority Leader John Thune called the defense package a good bill and switched his vote in a procedural move that will allow him to bring it back for consideration later. The bill also includes a substantial increase in Pentagon spending to $1.5 trillion, up from about $900 billion last year, which some Republican deficit hawks are resisting despite supporting the war.

A bipartisan group of senators introduced legislation Tuesday to address Social Security's funding crisis, just weeks after the latest trustees' report projected the retirement trust fund will face insolvency in 2032, one year earlier than previously estimated. The PROMISE Act calls for an independent, bipartisan advisory committee to make recommendations to Congress, with the goal of forcing lawmakers to confront the program's long-term financing problem.

The legislation is backed by Democratic Senators Dick Durbin and Tim Kaine, independent Senator Angus King, and retiring Republican Senators Bill Cassidy, John Cornyn and Thom Tillis. Durbin, who is also retiring, warned that the longer Congress waits, the more difficult it will be to address the shortfall. The bill is designed to culminate in an up-or-down vote on a plan that restores Social Security solvency for at least half a century.

Making changes to Social Security has long been politically unpopular, with lawmakers repeatedly kicking the program's troubling math to the next generation. The looming shortfall is mainly due to lower projected birth rates, reduced immigration and reduced trust fund revenue from the costs of Republicans' massive tax and spending bill Trump signed last summer. Even after trust fund depletion, Social Security will continue issuing benefits at reduced amounts, but the funding gap poses a critical challenge requiring congressional action within six years.

The Ebola outbreak in eastern Congo has reached 2,011 confirmed cases including 754 deaths, according to government data released Tuesday, making it the fastest-growing outbreak on record. The Central African nation has been battling the outbreak of the rare Bundibugyo virus since May 15, with 753 people remaining in isolation or hospitals and 366 having recovered so far.

The World Health Organization's emergencies chief warned Tuesday that the outbreak continues to outpace response efforts, with perhaps the most alarming finding being that many newly reported deaths are people who died in their communities without ever reaching a health facility. Roughly 80% of new cases are emerging from unknown chains of transmission, outside contact tracing lists, according to WHO official Chikwe Ihekweazu after returning from a trip to Bunia in hard-hit Ituri province.

Treatment capacity has expanded to nearly 800 beds and lab capacity has increased from one to 14 facilities, but the response has been hampered by funding gaps, attacks on health centers, ongoing conflict in eastern Congo and community mistrust. Clinical trials for treatments began last week after researchers launched a study to fight the virus, for which there is currently no approved vaccine or treatment. Contact tracing coverage remains at 67%, presenting an ongoing challenge for health officials trying to contain the outbreak.

The Senate Intelligence Committee will hold a confirmation hearing Wednesday for Jay Clayton, President Trump's pick to lead the nation's intelligence agencies, weeks after Trump abruptly delayed his nomination. Clayton, the U.S. attorney for the Southern District of New York and former Securities and Exchange Commission chairman, will testify as Republicans and some Democrats have expressed concerns about Trump's interim appointee Bill Pulte, who has no known intelligence experience.

Clayton has received some bipartisan praise, with Senate Intelligence Committee Chairman Tom Cotton calling him a patriot and highly qualified nominee. However, Democrats are expected to aggressively question him on election interference issues, especially as Trump plans to deliver a primetime address Thursday focused on elections that could revisit debunked conspiracy theories about his 2020 defeat. Oregon Senator Ron Wyden noted Trump made clear he expects his intelligence director to promote baseless election theories.

Democrats are also certain to press Clayton on his role in recent subpoenas of four New York Times journalists who reported on security concerns involving the new Qatar-gifted Air Force One. The Committee to Protect Journalists called the subpoenas an extraordinary escalation in Trump's efforts to threaten and intimidate news organizations. Most Democrats are expected to vote against Clayton's nomination, though some may not object to an accelerated confirmation vote to replace Pulte, who has been serving as interim director since June 19.