The July JOLTS report shows a resilient but sluggish U.S. labor market—marked by low hiring and low firing—as households contend with an Iran-driven energy price shock, offering a key data point ahead of Friday's broader jobs report.
U.S. job openings ticked up to 7.27 million in July from a revised 7.18 million in June, the Labor Department reported Tuesday in its Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS). Layoffs fell during the month, but so did the number of people voluntarily quitting their jobs, a metric often used as a gauge of worker confidence. Gross hiring, before subtracting those who lost or quit jobs, dipped to 5.1 million in July from 5.3 million in June.
Economists describe the current environment as a 'low fire, low hire' labor market. So far this year, U.S. employers have added an average of just 61,000 net jobs per month, a modest figure dragged down by job losses in February and July. That pace is nonetheless an improvement over 2025, when job growth averaged below 10,000 a month—the weakest hiring outside a recession since 2002—as high interest rates and tariff-related uncertainty discouraged firms from expanding.
Heather Long, chief economist at Navy Federal Credit Union, said companies are growing cautious as the conflict with Iran drags on and borrowing costs remain elevated. The unemployment rate held at a low 4.1%, and weekly unemployment benefit claims have stayed low, suggesting employers aren't cutting staff even as they hold back on new hires.
The report offers an early data point ahead of Friday's more comprehensive August jobs report from the Labor Department. Forecasters surveyed by data firm FactSet expect employers to have added 65,000 jobs in August, with the unemployment rate ticking up slightly to 4.2%. The figures will help clarify whether the sturdy-but-sluggish pattern seen in July is persisting into the fall.
Editor’s rationale — Routine monthly labor data release with nationwide scope affecting all Americans and policymakers, but limited structural institutional change; primary source (Labor Department JOLTS report) provides strong verification; medium durability as economic indicators drive policy decisions over weeks-to-months; modest novelty as incremental monthly update rather than surprise or shift.