The briefing for Saturday, September 12.

Saudi Arabia closed its critical East-West pipeline on Friday after drones launched from Iraq's Maysan province struck the facility, causing injuries and damage still being assessed. Iraq's government confirmed the attack originated from its territory, fired the regional military commander, and launched an investigation. An umbrella group of Iran-backed militias denied responsibility while praising Houthi "battlefield victories" against Saudi forces.

Saudi Arabia said it would not retaliate for now, giving Iraq's government time to address the militias operating within its borders. Iraq's prime minister has set a September 30 deadline for nonstate armed groups to disarm, though several powerful militias have refused to comply. In a related move, Iraq closed two major border crossings with Iran, halting all passenger and commercial traffic.

The 1,200-kilometer pipeline has carried 4% to 5% of global oil supply and became even more vital after the Strait of Hormuz was effectively closed by the ongoing U.S.-Iran war. Saudi Arabia had more than doubled exports through the pipeline's Red Sea terminus to over 5 million barrels per day by June. President Trump, asked about the situation, said "everything will work out just fine," but the attack adds a volatile new front to a regional conflict already straining global oil markets.

Yemen's Houthi rebels captured Perim Island at the mouth of the Bab al-Mandab Strait on Friday, a day after seizing the strategic port city of Mokha, with a Yemeni military official saying the group now controls the entire coastline. The Houthis said international shipping remains safe except for vessels linked to Saudi Arabia, which they have blockaded. Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman has personally appealed to President Trump for U.S. military action, but Trump has so far offered only intelligence and targeting support rather than direct involvement.

The advance gives Iran-backed forces effective leverage over two of the world's most important maritime chokepoints: the Strait of Hormuz and now the Bab al-Mandab, which together handle more than 35% of global oil and fuel trade, according to Chatham House researcher Farea al-Muslimi. Saudi oil exports through the Red Sea have already collapsed from 3.8 million to 2.2 million barrels per day in August, forcing tankers toward costlier routes through the Suez Canal and Egyptian pipelines. Overall Saudi oil supply has fallen to 6 million barrels per day, the lowest in three decades.

At least 46,000 people have been displaced in Yemen since fighting escalated a week ago, with the International Organization for Migration warning the number is rising "alarmingly." Analysts note that while the Houthis are not simple Iranian proxies, Tehran has redirected support to the group following setbacks suffered by other allied forces including Hezbollah and Hamas. With midterm elections approaching and Trump's Iran war already unpopular, the White House appears reluctant to open a new military front despite Saudi pressure.

The House is set to vote next week on a sweeping Russia sanctions package that passed the Senate 86-11, though its fate in the House remains uncertain. The bill, named after the late Sen. Lindsey Graham, would let the president impose tariffs up to 100% on the top five buyers of Russian oil and gas, including China and India, while also sanctioning Putin, senior Russian officials, and financial institutions.

Top Democrats including Reps. Gregory Meeks, Richard Neal, and Don Beyer have raised concerns that the bill's expanded tariff authority could be used by Trump against U.S. allies rather than just Russia. They're calling for renegotiation, while urging Trump to use his existing authority to expand sanctions immediately. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has pushed hard for passage, calling it "a very important historical moment" for the U.S.

This is likely the House's last chance to act on the measure before members leave for midterm campaigning. The bill also includes an extension of Iran sanctions, reflecting the administration's strategy of pairing economic pressure with military options in that separate conflict. Its outcome could significantly affect Washington's leverage over Moscow as the Ukraine war continues into its winter phase.

Russian drone strikes killed three civilians and wounded dozens across Ukraine on Saturday, including two dead in Zaporizhzhia and 28 wounded in a "massive attack" on Odesa that destroyed the upper floors of a residential building. The strikes came as Russian President Vladimir Putin warned at the BRICS summit in India that European troops entering Ukraine would constitute "a war with Russia," while denying Moscow poses any threat to Europe.

Russia has begun deploying faster, jet-powered drones that are harder to intercept, part of an intensifying campaign targeting Ukraine's energy grid ahead of winter. A UN Development Programme official, former Belgian PM Alexander De Croo, told the BBC this will be "the toughest winter" since the war began, warning of a possible "humanitarian catastrophe" if heating and water systems fail amid sub-zero temperatures.

Separately, Zelenskyy said he would meet Putin if both were invited to December's G20 summit in Miami, though the Kremlin has not confirmed Putin's attendance. Poland's prime minister said recent incidents at border crossings with Ukraine and Moldova may preview intensified Russian provocations along NATO's eastern edge, raising the stakes for European security planning.

A federal appeals court ruled Friday that the Energy Department exceeded its legal authority when it used emergency powers to force Michigan's J.H. Campbell coal plant to stay open past its scheduled retirement. The U.S. Court of Appeals for the D.C. Circuit sided unanimously with Michigan, Illinois, and Minnesota, along with environmental groups, finding no genuine emergency existed under the law.

Energy Secretary Chris Wright had invoked emergency authority to keep the 64-year-old plant running, citing regional grid reliability concerns. Keeping it open past its May 2025 retirement date has already cost about $259 million, expenses that critics say will be passed on to Midwest ratepayers. Judge Cornelia Pillard wrote that the emergency provision is meant as "a narrow, last-resort backstop," not a tool for reversing planned retirements.

The ruling is a setback for the administration's broader campaign to keep aging fossil-fuel plants online in states including Indiana, Colorado, Florida, and Washington, as well as a gas plant in Pennsylvania. Environmental groups called it a win for consumers and a rejection of efforts to prop up "unreliable, aging coal plants" at public expense. The Sierra Club vowed to continue challenging similar extensions in other states.