The briefing for Tuesday, September 22.

President Trump is set to address the UN General Assembly on Tuesday at a tumultuous moment for the world and his presidency. The global economy has been shaken by his decision to launch a war against Iran, while anxiety about AI's social impact surges and questions linger about the UN's future amid U.S. funding cuts. After his speech, Trump is expected to meet with British Prime Minister Andy Burnham, Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi, and Gulf Cooperation Council leaders to discuss the Iran war and Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia.

Administration officials signaled Trump will argue the world is better off under his leadership, even as his Iran war strategy has become a drag on Republicans' midterm hopes. Ambassador Mike Waltz suggested Trump might revisit his criticism of the UN as ineffectual and biased. Nearly seven months into the Iran war, strikes have killed much of Iran's leadership and destroyed its military infrastructure, but oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz remain well below pre-war levels, with Brent crude hovering around $100 a barrel.

Qatar's foreign ministry spokesman said mediators are trying to overcome a 'deep deficit of trust' between the U.S. and Iran to restart negotiations. Meanwhile, roughly 130 heads of state are expected to speak at the Assembly this week, with notable absences including China's Xi Jinping, Russia's Putin, and India's Modi. UN Secretary-General Guterres' term ends December 31 with no successor yet named, adding to questions about the 81-year-old institution's direction as it confronts wars in Iran, Gaza, Ukraine, Sudan, Congo and Myanmar.

President Trump is hosting Chinese leader Xi Jinping in Washington this week, their third meeting since Trump returned to office, as economic and tech competition between the two nations escalates. Xi's visit, beginning Wednesday, is his first to Washington in a decade and comes after the countries stepped back from an intense trade war involving tit-for-tat tariffs and Chinese restrictions on critical minerals exports.

Neither side expects a grand bargain, but both are seeking stability for competitive reasons, according to analysts. AI has emerged as a central battleground, with Trump claiming U.S. dominance and declaring he won't 'stifle Growth' of a technology he says will be bigger than the Industrial Revolution. China's state security chief, in an unusually blunt essay, warned that AI poses a direct threat to Communist Party rule if rivals gain superior capabilities.

The U.S. is restricting exports of advanced AI chips to China and has accused Chinese developers of extracting capabilities from American models through a practice called distillation. Beijing disputes the characterization and criticizes U.S. efforts to build an AI alliance that excludes China. Despite the friction, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the U.S. has proposed a new notification mechanism with China, suggesting at least limited cooperation remains possible.

Russia bombarded at least four Ukrainian regions overnight with missiles and drones, killing five people, while Ukrainian forces struck another Russian oil refinery in Samara, killing one person there. The exchange came as Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy traveled to New York to meet Trump and other world leaders at the UN General Assembly, seeking help to end Russia's more than four-and-a-half-year invasion.

The war has killed more than 500,000 Russian troops, according to Western officials, and has had significant global economic repercussions. Repeated strikes on Russian refineries and Russian attacks on Ukraine's power grid have caused international diesel shortages and price spikes, compounded by curtailed oil shipments from the separate Iran war. Russia and Ukraine together have historically accounted for roughly 30% of world wheat exports and 12% of corn exports, but attacks have slashed both countries' agricultural exports by two-thirds in the past month, according to the Carnegie Europe think tank.

French President Macron said France would provide Ukraine with more radars to protect its power grid and that he discussed with Trump a possible truce on energy infrastructure strikes and a moratorium on Black Sea attacks. Zelenskyy began his visit by thanking U.S. senators for a new Russia sanctions bill Trump signed into law, and he plans to press Trump for more Patriot air defense systems. A UN food agency report warns that reduced grain exports, layered on top of Strait of Hormuz disruptions, could push several African nations toward famine.

Paramount agreed Monday to settle an antitrust lawsuit filed by 12 states, removing the last major obstacle to its $81 billion acquisition of Warner Bros. Discovery. Under the settlement, which still needs judicial approval, Paramount committed to a five-year movie production plan, $1.5 billion in additional domestic film investment, and creation of a $25 million fund for independent film acquisitions.

Paramount also agreed to produce at least 30 films annually in the first two years, rising to 32 in following years, with penalties including a forced sale of Miramax Studios if targets aren't met. The company will create a $47.5 million workforce fund for laid-off workers and has separately settled a related lawsuit from the Writers Guild of America, agreeing to bar writer layoffs at CBS News for five years and pay $17.5 million to the union's health fund. California Attorney General Rob Bonta, who led the states' case, said the settlement was about protecting workers' livelihoods but stressed it wasn't an endorsement of the merger itself.

Analysts warn the deal will still likely reduce competition and raise consumer prices, even with the new commitments. Critics, including former FTC commissioner Alvaro Bedoya, argued the settlement represents further harmful consolidation that will lead to layoffs and higher bills for consumers. Paramount CEO David Ellison called the settlement 'complete clearance' for the merger, which combines historic studios, networks CBS and CNN, and streaming platforms HBO Max and Paramount+.

The Trump administration's dissolution of USAID, once the world's largest humanitarian donor, has fundamentally reshaped the global foreign aid landscape. Despite the U.S. government's repeated insistence that no one has died as a result of USAID's dismantling, the Associated Press has documented deaths across multiple countries linked directly to the funding cuts, including rising maternal and infant mortality in Nepal and child deaths in Myanmar, Nigeria and Somalia tied to cuts in nutrition programs.

A Lancet study had previously credited USAID programs with preventing 91 million deaths, including 30 million deaths of children under five, over the first two decades of this century. The Gates Foundation now predicts 2025 will be the first year this century in which child deaths increase globally. The AP notes the true scope of damage may never be fully known, partly because the cuts eliminated jobs for frontline workers who had been collecting mortality data.

The State Department maintains the administration has 'reinvigorated' assistance programs to focus on efficiency and partnership, and says the U.S. still spends more on health and humanitarian aid than any other country, adding that 'the rest of the world needs to contribute more and share the burden.' The new strategy increasingly bypasses NGOs in favor of direct bilateral agreements with foreign governments, often in exchange for concessions such as access to health data — a shift that has drawn pushback from some countries over privacy concerns.

Scientists monitoring Pacific Ocean temperatures confirmed this year's El Niño is now the strongest on record, with sea surface temperatures on September 19 measured at 3.05C above average, exceeding the previous record of 3.02C set in 2015. The event has not yet peaked, with that expected later this year, meaning further records could follow. The Met Office's Adam Scaife said the El Niño's strength already exceeds forecasts made months ago.

The phenomenon is fueling wildfires affecting roughly 12.5 million people across Indonesia, depleting water supplies for major cities, and reducing rainfall in India's monsoon by 15% so far this year. It is also linked to a record-setting absence of Atlantic hurricanes in 2026. Experts caution that impacts vary by region and aren't guaranteed to match the event's record intensity, but many expected effects are already materializing.

The UN World Food Program warns El Niño could push at least 49 million more people into acute food insecurity by the end of 2027, with the worst effects expected in Central America and southern Africa. In Southeast Asia, the crisis compounds existing strain from the Iran war's energy disruptions, with reservoirs supplying Jakarta's 42 million residents shrinking and fisheries along the Mekong River under mounting pressure from reduced water flows.