The briefing for Tuesday, October 13.

Former Congolese President Joseph Kabila on Monday launched a new political and military coalition, the Front for the Refoundation of the Nation (FRN), that includes the M23 rebel group currently controlling wide swaths of eastern Congo. The coalition's adviser said its mission is to end "tyranny" and unite resistance forces "by any means necessary, including the use of force." M23 leader Sultani Makenga will serve as one of Kabila's four deputies in the new movement, according to the BBC.

The announcement marks the clearest sign yet of Kabila's direct involvement with armed rebels, a year after a Congolese military court sentenced him to death in absentia for treason and collaboration with Rwanda and M23. Kabila, who ruled Congo from 2001 to 2019 before losing power to current President Felix Tshisekedi, has denied the charges as politically motivated. The U.S. has also sanctioned Kabila this year over his alleged support for rebel groups. Congo, the U.S. and U.N. experts have long accused Rwanda of backing M23, though Rwanda denies this.

The timing complicates an already fragile peace process. Under U.S. pressure, Congo's government and AFC/M23 rebels have been negotiating in Doha for more than a year, with little resolution. Researchers say Kabila's new leadership role in a coalition that folds in M23's command structure makes those talks far harder to sustain. "It is hard to see — even from a purely practical standpoint — how the Doha process will work," said Yvon Muya, a researcher at the University of Ottawa, who predicted further military escalation.

The development adds a volatile new dimension to a conflict already described as one of the world's largest humanitarian crises, involving roughly 100 armed groups vying for control of Congo's mineral-rich east. It also arrives as Tshisekedi faces separate domestic unrest over a parliamentary bill that could remove constitutional term limits, raising the stakes for a government now confronting threats on multiple fronts.

Homeland Security Investigations agents executed a court-authorized search warrant at the Washington-area home of Minnesota Rep. Ilhan Omar on Monday, according to the Justice Department. Officials said the search is tied to an ongoing federal criminal investigation but released no further details. Fox News, which first reported the search, said it relates to immigration paperwork filed by Omar's late father when she was a child.

Omar, a Democrat and frequent critic of President Trump, called the search "an attempt to target political enemies and weaponize federal law enforcement," adding that she would not be silenced. Trump told reporters he had "nothing to do" with the investigation but called Omar "a terrible person" and made disparaging remarks about her Somali origins, which drew chants of "deport" from a rally crowd in Ohio later that day. Omar's office called the raid "an outrageous abuse of power."

The search comes 22 days before the midterm elections, raising concerns among Democrats given a longstanding Justice Department policy against enforcement actions that create even the perception of targeting candidates ahead of elections. House Democratic leaders said the raid showed Trump's "violent mass deportation machine" had now reached "a duly elected Member of Congress." Homeland Security Secretary Markwayne Mullin and border czar Tom Homan had both signaled in recent weeks that Omar faced scrutiny, allegations Omar has called "complete shams."

The episode intensifies a broader debate over the use of federal law enforcement against the president's political opponents during a charged midterm cycle. Nancy Mace, a Republican congresswoman, had previously sought unsuccessfully to subpoena Omar's immigration records, underscoring that the scrutiny predates this latest action.

Elon Musk has quietly become the largest known donor of this year's midterm cycle, contributing more than $276 million since July to bolster Republican chances of keeping control of Congress, according to the New York Times and confirmed by a spokesperson for Musk's super PAC. The total includes $158 million to the Senate Leadership Fund — among the largest single political donations in U.S. history — plus $76 million to Musk's own America PAC and $10 million to a group backing Texas Senate candidate Ken Paxton.

The spending marks a reversal from last May, when Musk said he intended to scale back political giving after declaring "I think I've done enough." He has kept a lower public profile than in 2024, when he appeared alongside Trump at rallies and briefly led the Department of Government Efficiency before a public falling-out with the president. The two have since reconciled; Trump awarded Musk the National Medal of Science last week. Musk's net worth topped $1 trillion again last week, according to Forbes.

The cash gives Republicans a substantial financial edge over Democrats heading into the final stretch of the campaign, a rare advantage for a party bracing for potential losses amid voter frustration over prices and an unpopular war with Iran. A spokesperson for the pro-GOP Senate Leadership Fund said the investment gives Republicans "a fighting chance to defy history," while a Democratic super PAC spokesperson accused Republicans of trying to "buy these elections" to offset unpopular candidates and policies.

The International Monetary Fund on Tuesday raised its 2026 global growth forecast slightly to 3.1%, up from a 3.0% July estimate, while warning of mounting risks tied to artificial intelligence speculation and rising debt. The report, released at the IMF-World Bank fall meetings in Bangkok, projects growth will rebound to 3.4% in 2027. U.S. growth is expected to hold steady at 2.3% through 2027, while advanced economies overall will grow 2.1% this year before slowing in 2027.

The forecasts assume oil prices average $96 a barrel this year — a roughly 41% increase — and that shipments through the Strait of Hormuz resume by March. IMF research director Silvana Tenreyro said AI demand is currently offsetting damage from higher energy costs but called the outlook "highly uneven," noting the U.S. and China account for more than three-quarters of global demand for AI-related computer chips. Growth is increasingly concentrated: just 32 countries now account for 95% of global growth, down from 54 as of April.

Those warnings were underscored the same day by a sharp selloff in Asian markets, with South Korea's Kospi index closing 5.5% lower after sinking as much as 7% amid fears of an AI-driven correction. IMF officials flagged rising bond yields and cyberthreats as additional risks, while IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva warned AI could affect roughly 40% of jobs globally through augmentation, downgrading, or elimination — a shift she called "a slow moving tsunami."

The divergence in the forecast is stark: developing economies exposed to higher energy costs will see growth slow to 3.7% this year from 4.5% in 2025, while the Middle East and Central Asia are expected to contract before rebounding in 2027. India remains the fastest-growing major economy at a projected 7% pace, while China's growth is expected to ease to 4.5%, in line with Beijing's official target.

A merchant ship sank Tuesday after drones struck two vessels off Bulgaria's Black Sea coast, Prime Minister Rumen Radev said, in the second such attack in the area within a week. One crew member was rescued from the sunken ship, located 17 nautical miles east of Krapets, while all 15 crew members were saved from a separate Ukrainian-owned vessel hit by three drones near the town of Byala. Radev summoned Russia's ambassador, saying that while there was no conclusive evidence of blame, "the logic suggests the outcome benefits the Russian Federation."

The attacks follow an October 6 strike in Bulgaria's exclusive economic zone that sank the Alfa Watan, presumed to have killed all 10 crew members aboard, including nine Syrians. Russia's ambassador reportedly told Radev she had no information from Russia's defense ministry about the latest strikes and suggested they could be a "provocation by a third party." Russia's military has not publicly commented. Ukraine directly blamed Russia for the attacks, and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen called the Black Sea "another front of escalation" in Russia's war, calling it "unacceptable."

Bulgaria, a NATO member, has asked the alliance and the EU for technical assistance investigating the earlier attack, and Radev said he would speak with NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte. Russia says it targets vessels delivering weapons or dual-use cargo to Ukrainian ports, pointing to Ukrainian strikes on Russian-linked ports and a tanker in Sochi last week. Ukraine and European allies maintain that civilian cargo vessels carrying grain are being targeted, and Ukraine's foreign minister said Russia is "weaponizing hunger" in a sea that serves as a critical global food security lifeline. Turkey has called on both sides to halt attacks in the Black Sea, while Moscow has repeatedly rejected calls for a naval ceasefire.