The briefing for Monday, March 2.

Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was killed Saturday in the opening hours of a massive joint U.S.-Israeli air campaign, triggering retaliatory strikes across the Middle East that have left hundreds dead and expanded the conflict beyond Iran's borders. Three American service members were killed and five seriously wounded, marking the first U.S. combat deaths in the operation. Iranian forces struck the U.S. Embassy compound in Kuwait, launched missiles at Israel that killed nine people in a synagogue, and targeted airports and military bases across Gulf states including Bahrain, the UAE, and Qatar.

The strikes began Saturday morning local time after months of CIA tracking of senior Iranian officials' movements, according to U.S. officials. Israel and the U.S. hit Iran with near-simultaneous attacks—three strikes in three locations within a single minute—killing Khamenei and approximately 40 senior figures including the Revolutionary Guard commander and defense minister. President Trump urged Iranians to 'take over your government,' while Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said Israel destroyed Khamenei's compound in 'the heart of Tehran.' Iran has reported more than 200 dead, including 153 killed when a girls' school was struck in southern Iran, though Israel says it's unaware of operations in that area.

The conflict has drawn in Iranian-backed militias and triggered attacks on critical infrastructure. Hezbollah fired missiles from Lebanon into Israel, prompting Israeli airstrikes that killed at least 31 people in Lebanon. Saudi Arabia's Ras Tanura oil refinery—with capacity over half a million barrels daily—was attacked by Iranian drones and temporarily shut down. Iran warned ships not to pass through the Strait of Hormuz, through which 20% of the world's oil flows, and at least three vessels have been struck. Trump said combat operations would continue 'until all of our objectives are achieved,' though he has not specified what those objectives are beyond preventing Iran from obtaining nuclear weapons.

Oil prices jumped more than 7% in early Monday trading as attacks on vessels near the Strait of Hormuz disrupted global energy supply chains. West Texas Intermediate crude rose to around $72 per barrel, up from $67 on Friday, while Brent crude climbed to $78.55 per barrel from $72.87. Iran warned ships not to transit the strait, and at least three tankers have been struck by missiles, with approximately 150 vessels now anchored in open Gulf waters rather than risk passage through the chokepoint.

The Strait of Hormuz carries roughly 15 million barrels of crude oil per day—about 20% of global supply—making it the world's most critical oil chokepoint, according to Rystad Energy. Tankers moving through the strait transport oil and gas from Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Iraq, Qatar, Bahrain, the UAE, and Iran. Saudi Arabia's Ras Tanura refinery came under Iranian drone attack Monday and was temporarily shut down, while Kuwait's Ahmadi refinery was damaged by falling debris from intercepted drones, injuring two workers. The UK Maritime Trade Operations Centre reported multiple security incidents across the Arabian Gulf and Gulf of Oman.

OPEC+ announced Sunday it would increase production by 206,000 barrels per day in April—more than analysts expected—in an effort to cushion price increases. However, energy experts warn the production boost may provide limited relief if export routes remain constrained. 'If flows through the Gulf are constrained, additional production will provide limited immediate relief, making access to export routes far more important than headline output targets,' said Jorge León of Rystad Energy. Prolonged disruptions could drive up prices for gasoline and consumer goods worldwide at a time when many are already feeling the effects of elevated inflation.

President Trump urged Iranians to 'seize control of your destiny' and overthrow their government barely an hour after U.S. and Israeli missiles struck Iran on Saturday, raising questions about whether Washington has a clear postwar vision. The call for regime change marks a sharp departure from Trump's longstanding criticism of U.S. 'nation building' and 'forever wars,' though administration officials have not laid out what a post-conflict Iran would look like or clarified whether the U.S. seeks complete overthrow of the leadership or a negotiated transition with pragmatic elements of the current government.

History suggests regime change efforts rarely proceed as planned. The CIA helped engineer a 1953 coup in Iran that toppled the democratically elected leader and gave power to Shah Mohammad Reza Pahlavi, who was himself overthrown in 1979's Islamic Revolution. More recent U.S. interventions in Iraq, Afghanistan, and Libya began with clear intentions but stumbled into political quagmires where democratic hopes turned into civil war and prolonged conflict. Trump himself has long criticized these efforts, saying in 2016 that 'we must abandon the failed policy of nation building and regime change' and arguing in 2025 that 'interventionists were intervening in complex societies that they did not even understand.'

The challenge facing U.S. policymakers is whether a new Iranian government would be democratic, stable, and aligned with U.S. interests, or seen domestically as an illegitimate American puppet. Iran's economy is in shambles and dissent remains strong after a brutal January crackdown on protests, but the country's core leaders are deeply united by ideology and religion. 'The question to my mind right now is have we been able to penetrate the ranks of the regime that are not true believers that are more pragmatic,' said Jonathan Schanzer of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies. 'Because I don't believe that the true believers will flip.' Secretary of State Marco Rubio has said change in Venezuela—where the U.S. removed Nicolás Maduro in January—must go through phases of stabilization and recovery, but has not indicated whether similar elections could be held soon in Iran.

The FBI is investigating a shooting outside an Austin, Texas bar that killed two people and wounded 14 as a potential act of terrorism after the gunman wore clothing with an Iranian flag design and the words 'Property of Allah.' The attack occurred early Sunday morning outside Buford's Backyard Beer Garden on Sixth Street, a nightlife destination near the University of Texas campus, one day after U.S. and Israeli forces launched their attack on Iran. Police shot and killed the 53-year-old suspect, identified as Ndiaga Diagne, who used both a pistol and rifle in the assault.

Diagne drove past the bar several times before stopping and shooting from his SUV window at people on a patio and in front of the bar, according to Austin Police Chief Lisa Davis. He then parked, got out with a rifle, and began shooting at people on the street before officers confronted and killed him within a minute of the first emergency call. Three of the injured were in critical condition Sunday morning. Witnesses described a chaotic scene with hundreds of college students packed into the bar when gunfire erupted just before 2 a.m.

Authorities found 'indicators' on the gunman and in his vehicle leading them to investigate potential terrorism connections, said Alex Doran, the FBI's acting agent in charge in San Antonio, though officials cautioned it was too early to make a determination. The Department of Homeland Security said Diagne first entered the U.S. in 2000 on a tourist visa, became a lawful permanent resident in 2006, and became a naturalized U.S. citizen in 2013. He was originally from Senegal. Texas Governor Greg Abbott warned that the state would respond aggressively to anyone trying to 'use the current conflict in the Middle East to threaten Texas,' while President Trump was briefed on the shooting.