The briefing for Tuesday, March 3.

France announced a major expansion of its nuclear weapons program and will extend its nuclear deterrent to cover eight European countries including the UK, Germany, Poland, the Netherlands, Belgium, Greece, Sweden and Denmark. President Emmanuel Macron unveiled the policy shift in a speech at a naval base in Brittany, describing it as a response to an increasingly unstable strategic environment. The number of French nuclear warheads will increase from around 300, and a new nuclear-armed submarine called The Invincible will launch in 2036.

Under the new 'advanced deterrence' strategy, partner countries can participate in exercises of France's air-launched nuclear capacity and host air bases where French nuclear bombers could be stationed. According to Macron, this would allow France's Strategic Air Forces to 'spread out across the depth of the European continent... and thus complicate the calculations of our adversaries.' France and Germany jointly announced plans for closer cooperation, with Germany participating in French nuclear exercises starting this year. However, France retains sole decision-making power over when to fire nuclear missiles.

Officials describe this as the most significant change in French strategic thinking since 1960, when President Charles de Gaulle established the original nuclear doctrine. The new policy maintains deliberate ambiguity about what constitutes France's 'vital interests'—an attack on which would trigger a nuclear response—though it now more explicitly includes European interests. Both France and Germany emphasized that this cooperation 'will complement, not replace, NATO's nuclear deterrent.' Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk referenced the decision on social media, stating 'We are arming up together with our friends so that our enemies will never dare to attack us.'

Oil and gas prices jumped sharply as Iran threatened to close the Strait of Hormuz, a critical waterway through which 20% of the world's oil and gas passes. An Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps adviser told state TV that ships 'should not come to this region. They will certainly face a serious response from us.' Shipping through the strait has effectively halted after several vessels were attacked over the weekend, with a bomb-carrying drone boat killing one mariner on a Marshall Islands-flagged oil tanker Monday.

U.S. oil prices rose 8.4% to $72.63 per barrel while international benchmark Brent crude climbed 8.5% to $79.13. Natural gas prices spiked by 30% to around 140 pence per therm after QatarEnergy, one of the world's largest exporters, halted liquefied natural gas production following military attacks on its facilities. Saudi Arabia also temporarily shut its major Ras Tanura oil refinery after a drone strike. The cost of hiring a supertanker to move oil from the Middle East to China reached an all-time high of more than $400,000, nearly double last week's cost.

Analysts warn that prolonged disruption could push crude oil prices above $100 per barrel, which would raise gasoline prices for U.S. drivers and increase costs for goods globally at a time when inflation concerns persist. Stock markets tumbled worldwide, with the UK's FTSE 100 falling 2.6% and major European indexes dropping 2-3%. President Trump is scheduled to meet with Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Energy Secretary Chris Wright on Tuesday to discuss the situation, with Secretary of State Marco Rubio promising the administration will announce plans to mitigate rising energy prices.

Six American soldiers were killed in an Iranian missile strike against a U.S. military facility in Kuwait on Sunday, U.S. Central Command confirmed. Officials originally reported three deaths but updated the toll Monday after one person succumbed to injuries and two more bodies were found in rubble. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said a 'powerful weapon' struck a 'tactical operations centre that was fortified,' though he did not provide further details about the location.

Three U.S. military officials with direct knowledge of the attack told CBS News that the service members were in a makeshift office space, with a trailer being used as an office protected by 12-foot steel-reinforced concrete barriers. The officials questioned whether the building had been adequately fortified. More than 13,000 American soldiers are stationed in Kuwait as part of a long-standing defense relationship with the Gulf nation.

These are the only U.S. military fatalities confirmed since the joint U.S.-Israeli operation against Iran began. Separately, the U.S. confirmed three fighter jets were downed Monday in what officials described as 'friendly fire,' though Iranian state media claimed without evidence that Iranian forces shot them down. Iran has responded to U.S. and Israeli attacks by launching missiles at Gulf countries allied with Washington, with Bahrain, UAE, Saudi Arabia, Oman and Qatar all experiencing strikes. The U.S. Embassy in Saudi Arabia was also hit by Iranian drones.

Israel launched strikes on Lebanon killing at least 31 people after the Iranian-backed militia Hezbollah fired rockets and drones at the Israeli city of Haifa. Lebanon's health ministry said casualties occurred in Beirut's southern suburbs—where Hezbollah has a strong presence—and southern Lebanon. Hezbollah said the attacks were retaliation for the killing of Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and Israeli strikes in Lebanon since a ceasefire ended their 15-month war. There were no reported casualties in Israel from Hezbollah's fire.

Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz ordered the military to 'act forcefully' against Hezbollah and declared its leader Naim Qassem a 'marked target for elimination.' The Israeli military said it struck senior Hezbollah operatives, command centres, weapons stores and 'terrorist infrastructure,' allegedly killing Hussein Meklad, head of Hezbollah's intelligence headquarters. Powerful waves of air and naval strikes hit Beirut's southern suburbs around 3:00 a.m., causing fires and sending residents fleeing. Roads near Beirut's airport were damaged, and bumper-to-bumper traffic stretched along highways as residents evacuated the capital.

Lebanon's Prime Minister Nawaf Salam condemned Hezbollah's actions as 'irresponsible' and said his government was immediately banning the group's military activities. The move marks a significant shift in Lebanon's stance toward Hezbollah, which functions as both a militia and political party with close financial and ideological ties to Iran. The escalation had been widely expected after Hezbollah leader Naim Qassem declared his group would 'undertake our duty of confronting the aggression' and not leave 'the field of honour and resistance' following Khamenei's assassination.

The Supreme Court cleared the way for California schools to tell parents if their children identify as transgender without getting the student's approval, granting an emergency appeal from a conservative legal group. The order blocks a state law that banned automatic parental notification requirements if students change their pronouns or gender expression at school. The law had been challenged by religious parents and educators represented by the Thomas More Society, who argued schools were misleading them and secretly facilitating children's social transitions despite parental objections.

California had argued that students have the right to privacy about their gender expression, especially if they fear rejection from their families, and that school policies aimed to strike a balance with parents' rights. The high court sided with the parents and reinstated a lower-court order blocking the law and school policies while the case continues. The decision comes months after the court upheld state bans on gender-identity-related healthcare for minors, and as justices appear to be leaning toward allowing states to ban transgender athletes from girls' sports teams.

Justice Samuel Alito has previously called school policies for transgender students 'an issue of great and growing national importance.' The Trump administration found in January that California's policies violated parents' rights to access their children's education records, and the Justice Department also sued over the state's transgender athlete policies, determining they violate federal civil rights law. The Supreme Court has ruled for religious plaintiffs in several recent cases, including allowing parents to pull children from public-school lessons if they object to storybooks with LGBTQ+ characters.

A federal appeals court rejected the Trump administration's attempt to delay the process of refunding billions of dollars in tariffs the Supreme Court struck down as illegal last month. The U.S. Court of Appeals for the Federal Circuit sent the case to a lower court to sort out the refund process, refusing the Justice Department's Friday request to proceed cautiously and hold off for 90 days. The government could ultimately be on the hook for refunds worth $175 billion, according to calculations by the Penn Wharton Budget Model, after collecting more than $130 billion from the tariffs by mid-December.

The Supreme Court ruled February 20 that Trump's sweeping tariffs on most countries were illegal, clearing the way for importers who paid them to seek refunds. However, the court offered no guidance on refunds and did not even mention them in its decision. Now the U.S. Court of International Trade in New York will decide how the complicated refund process should proceed. Trade lawyer Ryan Majerus said he expects the court to take an aggressive posture, asking the government to justify how they intend to comply with the Supreme Court's ruling.

Legal experts say the situation is somewhat uncharted territory, with questions about how the government might actually pay for refunds of this magnitude. One lawyer noted 'it's not like there's over a hundred billion dollars sitting in a room somewhere to just cut checks,' suggesting this is a Treasury problem. The Trump administration has been reaching for new tariffs to replace those struck down, which experts say may partly be driven by the need to raise revenue to pay out refunds while also serving the administration's stated goals of strategic trade agreements and bargaining power.