The briefing for Thursday, April 9.

The two-week ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran, announced late Tuesday by President Trump and mediated by Pakistan, appears increasingly fragile less than 24 hours after taking effect. Israeli strikes hit busy commercial and residential areas in central Beirut without warning on Wednesday, killing at least 182 people in what Lebanon called the deadliest day of the latest Israel-Hezbollah war. Trump told PBS News Hour that Lebanon was not included in the ceasefire deal, calling it 'a separate skirmish,' though Iran and mediator Pakistan said the pause extended to Lebanon.

In response to the Beirut attacks, Iran announced it was again halting movement of oil tankers through the Strait of Hormuz, reversing one of the ceasefire's key conditions. Iran's Revolutionary Guard Corps promised a 'regret-inducing response' if strikes on Lebanon continue. By midday Wednesday, only three vessels had crossed the strait since the ceasefire announcement, far below the typical 138 ships per day before the conflict began February 28. Ships in the Gulf received warnings from Iran's navy that any vessels crossing without permission 'will be targeted and destroyed,' according to shipping brokerage firm SSY.

Oil prices, which had plunged below $100 per barrel immediately after the ceasefire announcement, reversed course Thursday and rose back above $97. Brent crude jumped 3.5% as markets reacted to Iran's closure of the strait and the continued fighting in Lebanon. Stock markets that had surged Wednesday on ceasefire optimism gave back some gains, with European indexes falling between 0.3% and 1.3%. Under the ceasefire terms, the U.S. agreed to suspend attacks on Iran for two weeks if Tehran reopens the strait, while Iran issued a 10-point plan including demands for complete cessation of war, lifting of sanctions, and compensation for reconstruction costs. Vice President JD Vance is expected to lead the U.S. delegation in negotiations with Iran in Pakistan on Saturday.

President Trump sharply criticized NATO following a private two-hour meeting with Secretary General Mark Rutte at the White House on Wednesday, posting on Truth Social that 'NATO WASN'T THERE WHEN WE NEEDED THEM, AND THEY WON'T BE THERE IF WE NEED THEM AGAIN.' The meeting came as Trump has threatened to withdraw from the 32-member transatlantic alliance after several NATO countries resisted his calls to help reopen the Strait of Hormuz during the Iran conflict. White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt said NATO was 'tested and they failed,' adding that member countries had 'turned their backs on the American people.'

Rutte spent over two hours at the White House, though the exact length of his meeting with Trump is unknown. The NATO chief told CNN afterward that he pointed out 'the large majority of European nations has been helpful with basing, with logistics, with overflights,' calling it 'a nuanced picture.' Rutte also said NATO members do not see the war in Iran as illegal, and most agreed it was important to degrade Iran's nuclear capabilities. The alliance was already strained over Trump's plans for Greenland before the Iran conflict escalated tensions to what may be the greatest challenge in NATO's history.

Senate Republican Mitch McConnell issued a statement Tuesday night defending NATO, noting that 'Following the September 11th attacks, NATO allies sent their young servicemembers to fight and die alongside America's own in Afghanistan and Iraq.' Congress passed a law in 2023 preventing any U.S. president from unilaterally withdrawing from NATO without approval from a two-thirds Senate majority or an act of Congress. The law was championed by current Secretary of State Marco Rubio when he was a Florida senator. It remains unclear whether the Trump administration would challenge this law if Rutte's diplomatic efforts fail to satisfy the president's demands.

More Federal Reserve policymakers are now willing to consider raising interest rates this year, according to minutes from the central bank's March meeting released Wednesday. The number of officials supporting potential rate hikes rose from 'several' in January to 'some' in March, marking a significant shift from the Fed's 18-month lean toward cutting rates. The minutes showed 'many' officials pointed to the risk that higher oil and gas prices from the Iran war could keep inflation elevated 'longer than expected, which could call for rate increases' to push inflation back down.

The Fed kept its key rate unchanged at its March 17-18 meeting at about 3.6%, standing pat for the second consecutive meeting this year after cutting rates three times at the end of 2025. Chair Jerome Powell downplayed projections that the Fed could reduce rates once this year, saying another reduction depended on underlying inflation cooling steadily. 'If we don't see that progress then you won't see the rate cut,' Powell said at a March news conference. Financial markets have dramatically shifted expectations, now not anticipating a rate cut until late 2027, compared to expectations of several reductions at the beginning of this year.

The Fed faces a difficult challenge navigating 'two-sided' risks of both higher unemployment and higher inflation. Officials acknowledged the Iran conflict could force households to cut spending to offset higher gas prices, slowing growth and raising unemployment, while simultaneously driving inflation higher through energy costs. On Friday, the government is scheduled to release the March inflation report, which economists forecast will show a huge 0.9% increase from February, with annual inflation rising to 3.4% from 2.4% in February. Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack said estimates show inflation will likely rise even higher this month, noting 'Inflation has been running above our target for more than five years now' and a further increase would mean it is 'moving in the wrong direction.'

EPA Administrator Lee Zeldin defended his decision to repeal the legal determination underpinning federal climate regulations in a keynote address Wednesday at a conference hosted by the Heartland Institute, a conservative think tank that rejects mainstream climate science. 'Today is a moment to celebrate. It is a day to celebrate vindication,' Zeldin told the gathering, adding that the repeal of the 2009 'endangerment finding' reversed decades of adherence to what he characterized as liberal politicians and environmental groups about climate change dangers. Zeldin, a former Republican congressman from New York widely believed to be under consideration for attorney general following Pam Bondi's forced departure, told attendees 'You were right there on the front lines against there being an endangerment finding in 2009.'

The EPA earlier this year revoked the endangerment finding, a scientific conclusion that for 16 years served as the central basis for regulating planet-warming emissions from power plants, vehicles and other sources. The Trump administration argued the finding hurts industry and the economy and claimed the Obama and Biden administrations twisted science to determine that greenhouse gases are a public health risk. The 2009 finding determined that carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases threaten public health and welfare, serving as the legal underpinning of nearly all climate regulations under the Clean Air Act.

Environmental groups denounced Zeldin's appearance before the Heartland Institute, with Environmental Defense Fund U.S. director Joe Bonfiglio calling it 'promoting disinformation' and doing the bidding of the group's secretive donors. 'The Heartland Institute is not a serious scientific organization. It's a disinformation factory,' Bonfiglio said. An EPA spokeswoman defended Zeldin, saying 'the era of EPA as a vehicle for radical ideology is over' and that Zeldin speaks before 'a wide variety of ideologically different groups.' The spokeswoman said Zeldin has returned the agency's focus to fulfill its statutory obligations 'backed by gold standard science, not doomsday models designed to scare the public into compliance.'

The California Supreme Court ordered Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco, a Republican, to pause his investigation into election fraud allegations and preserve all seized ballots while judges review legal challenges to his actions. The order came after California Attorney General Rob Bonta, a Democrat, asked the court to intervene last month, arguing the sheriff has no authority over election materials. A voting rights group is also challenging the ballot seizure. Bianco and his office 'are hereby ordered to pause the investigation into the November 2025 special election and preserve all seized items,' the court's order reads.

The dispute began earlier this year and escalated last month when Bianco seized 1,000 boxes of election materials to investigate a complaint from a local citizens group about the ballot count from a November 2025 special election on redistricting. Local election officials told the county Board of Supervisors the complaint was unfounded. After Bonta ordered Bianco to halt his probe, the sheriff seized another 426 boxes of ballots, bringing the total to over half a million ballots. Bianco previously defended his investigation, noting it was approved by a county judge, and said last week he paused the probe because of mounting legal challenges.

Bonta said the court's order is essential to stop what he called the 'destabilizing actions of a rogue Sheriff.' 'What the Sheriff says and what he does are often two different things,' Bonta said in a statement. Bianco is one of two prominent Republican gubernatorial candidates in California. The ballot seizure comes as President Trump has repeatedly disputed the 2020 election results citing unsubstantiated fraud claims, and his administration recently seized ballots and documents from an election office in Georgia. Some Republican officials in other states have mirrored Trump's rhetoric on voting and election integrity.