The briefing for Friday, April 10.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu announced Thursday that his government will begin direct negotiations with Lebanon next week, focusing on disarming Hezbollah and establishing peaceful relations. A US State Department official confirmed it would host the talks in Washington. However, Netanyahu made clear in a subsequent address that 'there is no ceasefire in Lebanon,' dashing Lebanese officials' calls for a pause in fighting before negotiations begin.

The announcement came one day after Israel launched massive air strikes across Lebanon, killing at least 303 people and wounding over 1,150 in what the BBC described as a 10-minute blitz hitting more than 100 targets. The strikes targeted Hezbollah command centers and military sites according to Israel's military, but several hit densely populated commercial and residential areas during rush hour. Lebanese President Joseph Aoun called the attacks 'barbaric' and said a ceasefire was 'the only solution.'

The confusion stems from fundamentally different interpretations of Tuesday's US-Iran ceasefire. Iranian officials and Pakistani mediators insist Lebanon was included in the two-week deal. US and Israeli officials say clearly it was not, with Trump calling Lebanon 'a separate skirmish.' Iran's deputy foreign minister told the BBC the strikes constituted a 'grave violation' of the ceasefire agreement. Israel continues to occupy large parts of southern Lebanon and issued new evacuation warnings Thursday for areas of Beirut containing two major hospitals. More than 1,800 people have been killed in Lebanon since the conflict erupted in early March, according to the health ministry.

The International Monetary Fund will downgrade its global economic forecast next week, even if the fragile US-Iran ceasefire holds, IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva announced Thursday. 'Had it not been for this shock, we would have been upgrading global growth,' Georgieva said ahead of next week's IMF-World Bank spring meetings. 'But now, even our most hopeful scenario involves a growth downgrade.'

The war that began February 28 has driven up oil and natural gas prices, damaged energy infrastructure, disrupted fertilizer shipments, and shaken business and consumer confidence. The world economy had proven resilient in the face of President Trump's sweeping import tariffs imposed last year, and the IMF had upgraded its global growth outlook to 3.3% in January. But the conflict changed those prospects dramatically.

Inflation data released Friday is expected to show a sharp spike to 3.4% in March compared to a year ago, up from 2.4% in February, driven largely by gas prices that rose about 20% during the month. The monthly increase of 0.9% would be the largest since 2022. Sub-Saharan Africa and small island countries are most vulnerable to the energy shock, Georgieva said, while governments globally have limited ability to respond with fiscal stimulus due to high debt levels. She urged policymakers to avoid 'go-it-alone' moves like export limits and price controls that could make the situation worse.

The Trump administration is using emergency powers and taxpayer funds to prevent coal plant retirements and extend their operating lives, reversing the Biden administration's push toward renewable energy. Interior Secretary Doug Burgum said the goal for coal plants 'is 100% stay open, no more retirements, no more shutting down.' Officials have already prevented five coal plants from closing, including Indiana's Schahfer Generating Station, which had been scheduled for retirement.

The moves far exceed Trump's coal advocacy during his first term and come as electricity demand surges due to the explosive growth of data centers powering artificial intelligence. Keeping one Michigan plant open for about seven months cost ratepayers $135 million. The administration is also slashing pollution limits to make it easier for plants to operate without costly upgrades, raising concerns about more expensive electricity, dirtier air, and setbacks to climate goals.

Dozens of coal plants emitting as much pollution as 27 million cars were expected to be retired during Trump's second term. Now there may not be any coal plant closures until after he leaves office, according to the energy analysis company Enverus. The administration proposed gutting rules targeting coal plant ash that threatens groundwater. Critics warn the policies could lead to higher costs for consumers and increased health risks from air pollution that kills more than a thousand people annually.

Since October 2025, the United States has admitted 4,499 refugees—all but three from South Africa—according to US Refugee Processing Center data. This marks a dramatic shift from the last full fiscal year under Biden, which started in October 2023, when 125,000 people were accepted from 85 countries. Last year, Trump halted all refugee admissions, including from war zones, but allowed Afrikaners, a white minority group he said was persecuted, to seek resettlement.

Trump has claimed that white farmers in South Africa face persecution and 'genocide,' assertions that South African President Cyril Ramaphosa has tried to refute. The South African government criticized the US decision in October, saying claims of white genocide have been widely discredited and lack reliable evidence. An open letter from prominent Afrikaner community members rejected the narrative, with some signatories calling the relocation scheme racist.

Diplomatic tensions between Washington and Pretoria have been rising since Trump returned to office. South Africa's ambassador to the US was expelled just over a year ago after accusing Trump of 'mobilizing a supremacism' and trying to 'project white victimhood as a dog whistle.' The first group of 68 South African refugees reached the US in May last year, with numbers increasing this year—2,848 people arrived in February and March alone. They have resettled across the US, with the highest concentration of 543 living in Texas.

Three Russian submarines conducted a covert operation over undersea cables and pipelines in waters north of the UK, Defence Secretary John Healey revealed Thursday. The Royal Navy deployed frigate HMS St Albans, fuel tanker RFA Tidespring, and anti-submarine Merlin helicopters to track the vessels and deter what Healey called 'malign' activity. 'We see you. We see your activity over our cables and our pipelines, and you should know that any attempt to damage them will not be tolerated and will have serious consequences,' Healey said, addressing Russian President Vladimir Putin directly.

Russia sent an Akula class submarine as a diversionary tactic while two GUGI spy submarines—specialized vessels reporting directly to Russia's defense minister and president—carried out surveillance of the cables, according to Healey. The attack submarine left UK waters and returned to Russia after being monitored, while the two GUGI vessels remained. British forces dropped sonar buoys to demonstrate they were monitoring every hour of the operation, showing the Russians their movements were not covert as planned.

The UK depends on around 60 undersea cables for more than 90% of its day-to-day internet traffic, with cables coming ashore at several points along the UK coastline, particularly around East Anglia and South West England. GUGI specializes in underwater surveillance, sabotage and reconnaissance, with the capacity to deploy miniature uncrewed submarines that can cut cables or intercept data passing through them. The Russian embassy in London denied Healey's claims, according to Moscow's state news agency Tass, saying Russia is 'not threatening underwater infrastructure' and 'not using aggressive rhetoric.'

The Justice Department is investigating the NFL for potential anticompetitive practices, according to a government official who spoke on condition of anonymity. The investigation focuses on 'affordability for consumers and creating an even playing field for providers,' the official said. The probe comes amid increasing federal scrutiny of how much fans are paying to watch sports on television as live sports shift from broadcast channels to streaming services.

Utah Senator Mike Lee, chair of the Senate judiciary subcommittee on antitrust, wrote to the Justice Department and Federal Trade Commission in March urging them to review whether the NFL's distribution methods align with the Sports Broadcasting Act. That 1961 law grants limited antitrust immunity allowing teams to collectively license game broadcasts to national networks, but courts have ruled the exemption applies only to broadcast television, not cable, satellite, or streaming.

The NFL said over 87% of its games are available on broadcast television, including all games played in a team's local market. The league averages nearly $11 billion per season in revenue from its media deals, which could increase since Paramount's sale to Skydance Media allows the league to renegotiate its CBS deal. Lee estimated in his letter that football fans spent almost $1,000 on cable and streaming subscriptions, while Forbes put the cost of watching every NFL game via streaming last season at $765. The NFL aired games last season across CBS, NBC, ABC/ESPN/ESPN+, Fox, NFL Network, Amazon Prime Video, Netflix and YouTube TV.