The briefing for Friday, June 12.

President Donald Trump announced Thursday he is nominating Jay Clayton, the U.S. attorney for the Southern District of New York and former SEC chairman, as director of national intelligence. The move came amid intense pressure from Congress to name a permanent replacement after Tulsi Gabbard's resignation last month and bipartisan pushback against Trump's choice of Bill Pulte as acting director.

The nomination failed to break a standoff in time to prevent the expiration of Section 702 of the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act at midnight Friday. The House rejected a temporary extension 198-218 in bipartisan fashion, with 19 Republicans and nearly all Democrats voting against it. Democrats had refused to support renewal unless Trump withdrew Pulte's appointment, arguing the Federal Housing Finance Agency head lacked national security experience.

The Senate Intelligence Committee plans to hold a confirmation hearing for Clayton on Wednesday, though it remains unclear whether confirmation could happen before Pulte is set to take over June 19. Senate Majority Leader John Thune said the chamber would "move quickly" but acknowledged uncertainty about the timeline. While Section 702 has expired briefly before, this marks the first lengthy lapse of the surveillance tool that allows U.S. agencies to collect foreign intelligence abroad, coming as World Cup games begin and ahead of the nation's 250th anniversary celebrations.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration officially confirmed Thursday that El Niño conditions have formed in the Pacific Ocean, with a 63% chance the event will become so intense it "would rank among the largest El Niño events in the historical record going back to 1950." The natural warming cycle is expected to further heat a globe already warming from fossil fuel pollution and turbocharge extreme weather across the planet.

Meteorologists forecast the El Niño could rival or exceed a record event that began in 1997 and triggered billions of dollars in damage from heat waves, floods, droughts, tornadoes and wildfires. The warm, deep waters affect global weather patterns by bringing "a lot of extra heat to the surface, fueling a lot of extreme events for a lot of places around the world," said Clark University climate scientist Abby Frazier. UN Secretary-General António Guterres described it as an "urgent climate warning," saying "El Niño conditions will pour fuel on the fire of a warming world."

The impacts spawn both winners and losers globally, with flooding common in northern Peru, southern Ecuador, parts of East Africa, Central Asia and the southern United States, while drought and wildfire risk rises across Australia, Indonesia and northern South America. The event also tends to suppress Atlantic hurricanes, which could lead to less rainfall and drought conditions in Central America. Coming on top of decades of human-caused warming, experts warn it could bring another record-hot year, most likely in 2027, with disruption to weather, food supplies and economies extending well into that year.

U.S. producer prices jumped 6.5% in May from a year earlier, the fastest pace since November 2022, fueled by surging energy prices following the Iran war, the Labor Department reported Thursday. The producer price index rose 1.1% from April, matching the previous month's increase. Wholesale gasoline prices surged more than 23% from April to May and nearly 70% from a year earlier.

The inflationary pressures, intensified by the energy shock caused by the conflict, are frustrating Americans five months before midterm elections that will determine whether President Trump's Republicans maintain control of Congress. Excluding volatile food and energy prices, core wholesale prices rose 0.4% from April and 4.9% from May 2025. The wholesale inflation numbers followed Wednesday's report showing consumer prices rose 4.2% in May from a year earlier, the most in three years, with gasoline prices up nearly 41% and airfares up almost 27%.

Separately, the World Bank downgraded its forecast for global economic growth to just 2.5% this year, the weakest performance since the COVID-19 pandemic. The bank cited higher energy prices and increased uncertainty from the Iran war, cutting growth projections for two-thirds of the world's countries. The bank expects Brent crude oil to average $94 a barrel this year, up 36% from 2025 and 50% more than forecast in January. S&P Global Energy warned Thursday that U.S. crude oil inventories are drying up as the summer driving season approaches, with continued drops potentially signaling entry into a "danger zone" for the U.S. refining system.

President Trump announced Thursday that the U.S. and Iran could reach an agreement this weekend to set a pathway to end the three-month-old war, saying he plans to dispatch Vice President JD Vance to the signing. The announcement came after Trump threatened to escalate the conflict with more intense bombardment and by seizing control of Iran's oil industry, including capturing the vital Kharg Island facility, following renewed strikes this week that had rendered an early April ceasefire all but meaningless.

Trump offered scant details but described the settlement as "very strong," though he acknowledged it remains "a little conceptual." He said it would ensure Iran is blocked from ever developing a nuclear weapon and claimed Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei, who has not been seen in public since being wounded on the first day of the war, is ready to sign off. "They've taken a pounding like very few people could take," Trump said, explaining why he was confident a deal would come through. "And they want to make the deal a lot more than I do."

A spokesperson for Iran's Foreign Ministry told state television that mediators were active but nothing had been finalized. The breakthrough, if it materializes, comes after Trump on Thursday morning posted on social media about escalating strikes but hours later called into Fox News questioning whether Americans had the "stomach" for an option requiring U.S. troops in harm's way. Analysts noted that even as Trump raised escalation threats, mediators from Pakistan, Turkey and Qatar had been making progress in talks with Iran, and that Iran's decision last weekend to attack Israel directly for the first time since the ceasefire had raised costs for the U.S. to follow through on commitments to safeguard Israel.

President Trump signed legislation Wednesday providing nearly $70 billion for his immigration and deportation agenda through the end of his term, ending a nearly six-month fight over Department of Homeland Security funding. The bill allocates $38 billion for U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement and $26 billion for the Border Patrol, with an additional $5 billion to cover unforeseen costs, according to the White House.

House Republicans pushed the measure through Tuesday by a 214-212 vote over Democratic objections. The funding fight began with the January shooting deaths of two U.S. citizens, Alex Pretti and Renee Good, during federal immigration enforcement operations in Minneapolis. Democrats demanded changes to immigration enforcement after the shootings, creating an impasse that resulted in the longest agency shutdown in history and ultimately led Republicans to go it alone on the funding.

The agencies will be funded through the next three years, with the law front-loading routine annual funding to ensure virtually uninterrupted money flow as the Trump administration seeks to deport some 1 million people per year. Trump signed the bill in the Oval Office a day after the House vote, providing unprecedented multi-year funding for his immigration enforcement priorities.

The Court of Appeals for the Federal Circuit ruled Thursday that the U.S. government can continue collecting the 10% worldwide tariff imposed in February while legal challenges work through the courts, handing a procedural win to the Trump administration. The court concluded the government's case was "likely to succeed on the merits."

At issue are temporary tariffs President Trump imposed after the Supreme Court in February struck down broader double-digit tariffs he had imposed last year on almost every country. The new levies, invoked under Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974, are set to expire July 24. Section 122, never used before to justify import taxes, allows the president to impose worldwide tariffs of up to 15% for 150 days, after which congressional approval is needed.

The central dispute is whether Section 122's reference to "fundamental international payments problems" covers trade deficits, as the Trump administration contends. A split three-judge panel of the Court of International Trade in New York ruled last month that the 10% global tariffs were illegal and that Trump overstepped the tariff power Congress had delegated. The case could be headed to the Supreme Court.