The briefing for Monday, October 5.

Brazil's presidential election is headed to an Oct. 25 runoff after right-wing Sen. Flávio Bolsonaro edged out incumbent President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in Sunday's first round. With 98.81% of votes counted, Bolsonaro had 47.24% support to Lula's 44.91%, falling just short of the majority needed to win outright. Neither candidate reached the 50% threshold required to avoid a second round.

Bolsonaro, 45, is the son of former President Jair Bolsonaro, who is serving a 27-year prison sentence for orchestrating a failed coup attempt after losing to Lula in 2022. The younger Bolsonaro has pledged amnesty for his father and for supporters involved in the January 8, 2023 riots, and has positioned himself as a close ally of President Trump. Lula, 80, is seeking an unprecedented fourth nonconsecutive term and has campaigned heavily on themes of sovereignty, accusing Washington of attempting to interfere in Brazil's elections — a claim the Trump administration has called baseless.

The result exceeded expectations for Bolsonaro, whose showing was bolstered by the elimination of other right-wing candidates in the first round, leaving him as the sole standard-bearer against Lula. Brazil's top electoral court said Sunday it found no evidence of international interference in the vote. A Bolsonaro victory would likely pull Latin America's largest economy more firmly into Washington's orbit, including potential alignment with the U.S.-led 'Shield of Americas' anti-narcotics coalition, though Bolsonaro has signaled he intends to maintain pragmatic economic ties with China, now Brazil's largest trading partner.

The runoff is widely seen as a test of whether Trump-aligned politics will extend to the region's most populous nation, following similar rightward shifts in Argentina, Colombia and Peru. Last year, Trump cited Jair Bolsonaro's coup trial to justify tariffs on Brazilian exports and sanctions on Brazilian officials and judges, adding a geopolitical edge to a race already shaped by economic strain and a corruption scandal that has touched both camps.

The U.S. Air Force has withdrawn all of its bombers — roughly a dozen B-1s — from RAF Fairford in England, returning them to bases in the United States. A Pentagon official confirmed the move Sunday but did not publicly state a reason. The withdrawal follows a Sept. 27 incident in which UK counter-terror police stopped three "suspicious vehicles" near the base, leading to the arrest and eventual release on bail of six men, including a UK-Iranian national.

The New York Times reported that U.S. commanders received fresh intelligence on an Iran-backed plot targeting the base, prompting the rapid withdrawal; officials said the bombers departed before aerial refueling support had even been fully arranged. British Prime Minister Andy Burnham has said there are "strong indications" of Iranian involvement in the original incident, though Tehran has firmly denied any role. U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said shortly after the September incident that it "clearly involve[d] the hands of a foreign actor."

RAF Fairford has served as a key forward operating base for U.S. bombers striking Iran in recent months, after the UK approved its use for what were described as defensive strikes. In July, Iran stated that any base used for operations against its territory would be considered a legitimate target. The withdrawal removes a significant U.S. foothold outside continental Europe, even though officials note precision strikes remain technically possible directly from the U.S., as demonstrated in last year's Operation Midnight Hammer.

The move comes as President Trump weighs further options on Iran, telling reporters Saturday that Tehran faces either "the easy way or the hard way." The U.S. military is simultaneously surging naval assets toward the Middle East, with the USS Theodore Roosevelt carrier and an amphibious readiness group carrying over 7,000 sailors and 2,000 Marines en route — a deployment that could put three U.S. carriers in the region by the end of October.

Rebel forces in Ethiopia's Tigray region have withdrawn from the regional capital, Mekelle, as government troops advance, according to the Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF) and local residents. The TPLF said the pullback was intended to protect civilians. Residents told the BBC that pro-government forces now control the city and that mobile phone service has partially resumed.

The withdrawal marks a major shift in fighting that has intensified over recent weeks between the TPLF and Ethiopian federal forces across the Tigray, Afar and Amhara regions. Last month, the TPLF joined six other armed groups — including Amhara's Fano militia — in an alliance explicitly aimed at removing Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed's government. The conflict follows the collapse of the 2022 Pretoria Agreement, the African Union-brokered peace deal that ended a two-year civil war estimated to have killed around 600,000 people.

The fighting has already strained regional diplomacy: Ethiopia and Eritrea severed diplomatic relations on Friday after Addis Ababa accused Asmara of backing the new rebel alliance, a claim Eritrea denies. Ethiopia has leveled similar accusations at Egypt, prompting tit-for-tat diplomatic expulsions. Leaders from Egypt, Eritrea, Somalia and Sudan met in Egypt on Sunday and issued a joint call for respecting Ethiopia's sovereignty and resolving disputes peacefully, while also addressing long-running tensions over the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam.

The U.S. State Department has urged "restraint" and "dialogue" from all sides. The United Nations has warned that the deteriorating security situation is severely disrupting humanitarian operations in a region still recovering from near-famine conditions, raising fears of a broader destabilization of the Horn of Africa.

Ukraine's Defense Ministry said Sunday that long-range strikes have knocked out 51% of Russia's oil refining capacity, targeting facilities in Moscow, Yaroslavl, Ust-Luga, Perm, Saratov and Syzran. The claim could not be independently verified. Ukrainian Defense Minister Yevhenii Khmara called it "a significant blow to the enemy's economy... and its ability to carry out aggression and supply its troop groupings."

The strikes are part of an intensified aerial campaign by both sides as the 1,200-kilometer front line has largely stalled. Russian President Vladimir Putin offered a rare acknowledgment of the damage on Thursday, saying the attacks had cost Russia roughly 1% of its GDP and "partially" achieved their goal of damaging the economy. Ukrainian strikes on refineries earlier this year sparked a fuel crisis in Russia that forced gasoline rationing in some regions.

The claims come amid continued, heavy cross-border strikes: a Russian drone attack killed one person and injured six in Kharkiv on Sunday, while Russia said it struck Ukrainian energy and port infrastructure. Ukraine's air force said Russia launched 205 drones overnight into Monday, of which 172 were intercepted. If accurate, Ukraine's refinery claims would represent one of the most significant economic blows dealt to Moscow's war effort since the invasion began in 2022, underscoring how both sides are increasingly targeting infrastructure as the ground war reaches a stalemate.

Japanese police arrested a 20-year-old U.S. Marine, identified by Japanese broadcaster NHK as Devin Jacob Ballard, on suspicion of robbing and murdering a 39-year-old woman, identified as Yagi Anna, at a hotel in Naha, Okinawa's capital. Police said the woman's body was found early Saturday and that security footage showed the suspect entering the hotel with the victim and later leaving alone; he was arrested after being spotted walking in Naha's entertainment district.

Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi called the crime "brutal and heinous" and said she had urged the U.S. to "enforce stricter discipline" over its personnel, while Defense Minister Shinjiro Koizumi said such incidents "must never occur." Japan's foreign ministry summoned U.S. Ambassador George Glass, who expressed condolences on social media and said the U.S. is cooperating with Japanese authorities. The Marine Corps, which said the suspect is assigned to the III Marine Expeditionary Force, said it takes the allegations "very seriously."

Okinawa, which hosts roughly half of the 50,000 U.S. troops stationed in Japan, has a long history of friction over crimes involving American service members, dating back to a notorious 1995 rape case that sparked mass protests. Newly elected Okinawa Gov. Genta Koja said the latest case shows the military's disciplinary efforts are "completely ineffective." The incident lands at a politically sensitive moment, as Takaichi's government pushes to deepen military cooperation with the U.S. and fortify Okinawa's role amid rising tensions with China.

President Trump has named Director of National Intelligence Jay Clayton to lead a newly created "Super Intelligence Force," a task force intended to coordinate the federal government's engagement with AI companies, consumers, critical infrastructure providers, and religious organizations. The task force also includes FTC Chair Andrew Ferguson, Undersecretary of Defense Emil Michael, and OPM Director Scott Kupor, and will report directly to Trump and Chief of Staff Susie Wiles.

The announcement follows Trump's late-September executive order officially renaming artificial intelligence as "Super Intelligence" across federal communications, and comes after Trump and major AI executives signed a "morally binding" safety pact on Sept. 29. Trump has consistently rejected calls for binding AI regulation, arguing that the U.S. must stay ahead of China. Democratic Sen. Elizabeth Warren has criticized the approach, calling for "meaningful regulations on AI to protect people" rather than additional task forces.

The move comes amid mounting industry pressure for stronger oversight. OpenAI CEO Sam Altman recently argued that the benefits of AI justify accepting certain risks, while a former OpenAI safety staffer wrote in The Atlantic that he left the company because its safety culture was "broken." OpenAI separately acknowledged that a rogue AI agent had hacked an Australian government statistics portal in June, a breach Australian officials say they only learned of in August and that is expected to carry "legal consequences."