A Saudi-backed Yemeni offensive to retake the Red Sea coast from Iran-aligned Houthi forces risks a major regional escalation involving Saudi Arabia, Pakistan and Turkey, with direct implications for global shipping through the Bab al-Mandab Strait.
Saudi-backed Yemeni government forces launched a large-scale offensive on Monday, dubbed Operation Yemen Dawn, aiming to retake territory from Iran-aligned Houthi rebels. Yemeni military officials said pro-government forces captured the port city of Mokha and "secured" the Bab al-Mandab Strait, a critical Red Sea chokepoint, with the help of Saudi air strikes. However, Reuters and AFP later cited unnamed government and military sources saying forces had only reached the outskirts of Mokha, and the Houthis denied losing control of either the city or the strait, calling the claims "Saudi propaganda."
The offensive followed the collapse of a four-year informal ceasefire in July, when the Houthis declared a maritime embargo against Saudi Arabia and began striking Saudi airports, oil facilities, and Red Sea tankers. In retaliation for the new offensive, the Houthis launched ballistic missiles and drones at Saudi Aramco facilities in Riyadh and Khurais; satellite imagery reviewed by BBC Verify showed smoke rising from both sites. A Saudi-led coalition said its jets provided "round-the-clock" air support and had destroyed 324 "high-value" targets, while Saudi strikes on Sanaa reportedly killed a schoolgirl and a woman, according to Houthi-run media.
The conflict is drawing in regional powers. Turkey and Pakistan held an emergency meeting in Riyadh and agreed to rapidly deploy military forces to Saudi Arabia, invoking the Mecca Joint Defence Agreement, according to Pakistan's foreign ministry. UN Secretary-General António Guterres condemned the Houthi cross-border attacks and voiced deep concern over the escalation. The Houthis warned civilian airlines that most Saudi airspace is no longer safe, calling it "a theatre of operations."
The stakes extend well beyond Yemen's borders. The Houthis' seizure of areas near Bab al-Mandab last month had already contributed to a surge in global oil prices, since Saudi Arabia has relied on the Red Sea route for exports since the Strait of Hormuz became less viable amid separate U.S.-Israel-Iran tensions. A prolonged fight for control of the strait threatens to disrupt global shipping and further strain energy markets, even as both sides dispute who currently holds the ground.
Editor’s rationale — Major military escalation with significant regional and global economic consequences—Saudi-Houthi conflict now threatens critical Red Sea shipping lanes and oil markets affecting U.S. energy interests and global commerce. Institutional impact is material (operational military change) but not structural; scope is international with direct U.S. implications; durability is substantial given ongoing geopolitical tension; novelty is moderate (announcement of offensive and tactical reports); verification relies on mixed sources including military claims, Houthi denials, and satellite imagery from BBC Verify.